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-   -   Laying the Fave using the Neurals (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=12396)

michaelg 3rd February 2006 10:45 AM

Not the best of days yesterday. From the seven (not six as stated) there were two winners totalling $5.50. To date there have been 55 selections for 9 winners totalling $28.20. The Unitab method has crashed, and I have been looking at a similar method with the neurals that has performed very well. I'll also list them from today and see how they go.

Four selections today:
Townsville R1 no.2 - Zozulina ($3.00)
Bordertown R3 no.7 - Echo peach ($3.50)
Bordertown R4 no.2 - Scary Smokovec ($2.50)
Darwin R3 no.2 - Youwouldn't Believe ($2.00)

New neural method:
Goulburn R4 no.5 - Lottery King ($3.70)
Townsville R1 no.2 - Zozulina ($3.00)
Bordertown R4 no.2 - Scary Smokovec ($2.50)
Bordertown R8 no.1 - September Gold ($3.80)

michaelg 4th February 2006 08:11 AM

A disaster yesterday. From the four selections there were two winners paying $7.90. To date there have been 11 winners from 57 selections totalling $36.70.

Sixteen selections today. Some of them seem very hard to beat.
Randwick R2 no.5 - Crums ($2.50)
Flemington R3 no.1 - Apache cat ($3.00)
Flemington R5 no.3 - Be Delicious ($3.50)
Flemington R6 no.4 - Stickpin ($2.75)
Flemington R9 no.3 - Mock ($2.80)
Dombeen R1 no.1 - Craiglea Bob ($2.80)
Morphetville R6 no.4 - Navy Shaker ($3.20)
Newcastle R7 no.4 - Red Punch ($3.50)
Newcastle R8 no.2 - Khateer ($3.20)
Gold Coast R6 no.1 - Satisfying ($3.50)
Coonabarabran R5 no.1 - Fulagrouch ($2.40)
Bendigo R8 no.2 - Norhave ($2.20)
Toowoomba R5 no.2 - Dane In Gold ($3.20)
Ascot R2 no.4 - Run Ronnie Run ($3.50)
Ascot R5 no.6 - Elsie The Eagle ($3.30)
Ascot R7 no.3 - Blazing Morn ($3.50)

michaelg 5th February 2006 10:32 AM

From yesterday's sixteen selections there were three winners totalling $9.10.
To date there have been 75 selections (this thread has shown 75 individual selections but I miscalculated on Fri by adding 4 selctions to 55 and coming up with an incorrect 57 instead of 59) for 14 winners totalling $45.80.

Nine selections today:
Sale R4 no.2 - Knockout ($3.80)
Parkes R2 no.4 - Blow Bubbles ($2.80)
Launceston R6 no.1 - Dream Quest ($3.50)
Port Lincoln R8 no.3 - Regal Lotto ($2.20)
Wodonga R6 no.1 - My Honor ($2.30)
Pinjarra R4 no.1 - Corporate Eddy ($3.50)
Pinjarra R6 no.3 - Cubic Zirconia ($3.00)
Pinjarra R7 no.4 - Magic Haul ($2.80)
Pinjarra R8 no.6 - Junko ($3.50)

KennyVictor 5th February 2006 11:23 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
(this thread has shown 75 individual selections but I miscalculated on Fri by adding 4 selctions to 55 and coming up with an incorrect 57 instead of 59)
What you need is a spreadsheet to keep your figures in. You'll find a template for reqesting one in the "Roving banker trifecta's" thread. :-)
Keep up the good work michaelg, it seems to be showing some promise.

KV

marcus25 5th February 2006 11:41 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by KennyVictor
What you need is a spreadsheet to keep your figures in. You'll find a template for reqesting one in the "Roving banker trifecta's" thread. :-)
KV

Hi KV!
Just love it!!!
Cheers

michaelg 6th February 2006 10:18 AM

Hi, KV. Unfortunately I am not computer-wise and using a spreadsheet at the moment is beyond me. Hopefully I'll one day be able to use it.

From yesterday's nine selections there were two winners paying $8.10 - not a good day. To date there have been 84 selections for 16 winners paying a total of $53.90. Adding 33%, it increases to $71.70.

I have been looking at another Lay system that has performed quite well over the past week. The selection must be under $4 pre-post, must be a last start winner (LSW) and its barrier draw today is in the outside half of the field. It seems, hopefully, that the extra weight combined with an unfavourable draw might put it at a disadvantage. I have not looked at races under 8 starters, and I presume weight-for-age and set weight races would not apply. From memory, there has been about 30 races for 3 winners paying approx $9. From today I'll also list these and see what happens.

Three neural selections today:
Grafton R2 no.4 - Lord Nediym ($3.40)
Grafton R5 no.2 - Sub Sonic ($3.20)
Horsham R1 no.3 - Anahita ($2.20)

Two LSW selections:
Grafton R2 no.4 - Lord Nediym ($3.40)
Grafton R5 no.2 - Sub Sonic ($3.20)

michaelg 7th February 2006 10:13 AM

A bad day again yesterday. From the three selections there was one winner of $2.80. The LSW method also had the winner of $2.80 from two selections.

Four selections today
Canterbury R2 no.2 - Eastwest Success ($2.80)
Stony Creek R8 no.1 - Liquuer ($2.30)
Taree R5 no.1 - Strawberry Spy ($2.80)
Taree R7 no.2 - Melodyssey ($3.50)

No LSW selections.

anchor 7th February 2006 11:58 PM

michaelg, 0 wins from the 4(though Melodyssey blew a gale out to $6.5).
Well done, interested on your progress.

michaelg 8th February 2006 10:52 AM

Hi, Anchor. Yes, that's a problem - the Starting Price. However, if a selection eases in the market it would generally be expected not to run well. After having said that, there have been 5 of the 17 winners that have started at $4 or more yet were under $4 in the pre-post, and these winners can do terrible damage to the system. But I think/hope the pre-post gets it right more often than not. The progress to date is 91 selections for 17 winners paying a total of $56.70 which would show a profit even with a 33% premium if they were laid on Betfair.

Seven selections today:
Warwick Farm R5 no.3 - Cash Carter ($3.00)
Warwick Farm R7 no.1 - Handbag Fortune ($2.80)
Warwick Farm R8 no.7 - Yolo ($2.80)
Ipswich R4 no.1 - Examiner ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.4 - Thorpe ($3.00)
Strathalbyn R4 no.2 - Cazza's Lottery ($3.50)
Strathalbyn R5 no.1 - Giggling Giggs ($3.00)

Three LSW selections:
Warwick Farm R8 no.7 - Yolo ($2.80)
Strathalbyn R8 no.1 - Da Thong ($2.00)
Bunbury R8 no.2 - Captain Woodrow) ($2.80)

KennyVictor 8th February 2006 11:46 AM

I'm not really "Betfair Literate" so could someone explain the 33% premium to laying them on betfair please.

KV


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