Results: June 2nd
 

Bit of a dirty day with both price divisions giving a little back. Some of the negative results were very close.

Prices from the B.A.T.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
EFRM02-06 Masai Pride 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-09 Glowing Rose 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-05 Fast End 6.60 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-02 Cool Scene 3.95 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-03 Al Mahara 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP05-01 Exalted Time 9.60 ... WON -8.60
MORP06-05 Constructor 10.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-03 Little Baldy 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORP07-08 Cadgee Gold 9.80 ... WON -8.80
SANL07-05 Sentire 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
SANL07-09 Force Nine 4.10 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA03-06 Partygoer 5.20 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA05-04 Fissle 7.20 ... LOST +1.00
TWBA06-03 Prancy Nancy 5.50 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 2nd
----------
Number of Selections: 100.00
Observed Successes: 90.00
Observed Strike Rate: 90.00%
Expected Successes: 80.94
Expected Strike Rate: 80.94%
Advantage: 11.20%
Success due to luck: 0.25%
Profit: +29.10 units
Commission @ 5%: -4.50 units
Net Profit: +24.60 units
Net ROI: +24.60% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT04-07 Lombo Choice 70.00 ... LOST -1.00
EFRM02-03 Atapi 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
EFRM08-04 Lachlan River 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST07-09 Morning Colours 18.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR04-07 Sure Century 80.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR05-09 Bishop Casey 19.50 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR06-08 Dame Seven 26.00 ... LOST -1.00
K_GR08-04 Crownalot 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP07-10 I'm A Goody 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL04-04 Capanna 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANL05-03 Royal Lakes 14.50 ... LOST -1.00
SANL06-07 Forest Spy 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANL08-05 Diamond Cove 12.50 ... WON +11.50
TWBA03-13 On A Circle 29.00 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 2nd
----------
Number of Selections: 124.00
Observed Successes: 11.00
Observed Strike Rate: 8.87%
Expected Successes: 6.22
Expected Strike Rate: 5.02%
Advantage: 76.72%
Success due to luck: 13.15%
Profit: +98.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -11.10 units
Net Profit: +86.90 units
Net ROI: +70.08% :)
====================

Peer reviewers sought...
 

I want to post the "Pixie's Pix" results till the end of the month but nobody has raised their hand to indicate any interest in the selections. :(

I can't keep posting them without somebody "at arms length" getting them before hand so I'd like one or more of the following contributers to this thread to volunteer to be the umpire.

BURRAH
CHROME PRINCE
MICHAELG
PUGNOSIS
TWOBETS

I'll provide the selections to you by e-mail on raceday morning. Shoot me off an e-mail to the address below and I'll get back to you.

angrypixie2007-propun at yahoo dot com dot au

If you don't want to don't worry, no offence taken ;) Hope to hear from one or all of you.

Sorry Ap, I'm moving house to the country in two weeks, you know what that means!
Probably take me a month to find which box the computer is in and then set it up.

Yep, you get to wear gumboots all the time. Nice one!

Good luck with the move. Hope you've tee'd up a decent ISP connection.

AngryPixie.

You can send me the selections each morning but I will have a problem if you wish me to record the results with real or accurate betting.

I am not always at my computer and therefore in some cases would have to use the BAT results applying one click higher than the Bet price to obtain the Lay price.

If this is acceptable I will provide my e-mail address or contact you.

Michael

No problems. All I want to do is send them to somebody so when I post the results they can call me a liar and a ********** and a complete waste of space if I leave any selections out or add extra ones in. Don't really mind about recording the BAT as everybody can check this latter.

Hear from you.

PS: C h e a t was *'ed

PPS: Perhaps I should just post them up here till the end of the month

Yes, I think posting them here in the morning will prevent anyone from accusing you or me (or anyone else) of any funny business.

And anyone wanting to lay them will also have the opportunity to do so.

I'm just wondering what criteria are you selecting the win bets on? It's obvious that more than 1 horse in a race is priced between $11.50 and $35.

Could be interesting actually
 

Talked me into it then Michael. I'll post them here till the end of this month. Could be an interesting experiment actually. I reckon one or both of last weeks accidents could have been pushed over the 11.00 mark had they have been published. That would have made them wins in the other division ;)

I'm only using a test bank on these at the moment anyway.

Crash, I'm just using a kooky combination of a few non-form factors to come up with the selections. They are then either a lay or a back depending on what their price is at the jump. 11.00 or less a lay. 11.50 or more a back. Started off as a lay only method but longshots kept getting up so I swapped the higher price division into back selections.

I'm not actually backing the longies (though I did have a few bucks on some of them for fun), I'm really just interested in the lays. Can't really explain the success of the higher price division but suspect it'll fall in a heap before long. Lays look ok though.

My method only seems to work this way on a Saturday or Public Holiday. During the week the opposite works quite well. Back the 11.00 and below selections, and lay the others (although I don't as they are too long). I don't have alot of time during the week though so it's Saturday's for me at present.

PS: I'm feeling better today :o

If.
 

Evenin' Pix,

Seems like your dilemma is sorted. If however some problem occurs I'm happy to step up to the plate. Just say the word.

I'm going to that darn target betting thread now to see if any more insults can be generated!