Results: June 30th
 

Well there you go :)

Arctic Park wrecked the fun but the win of Jewel Point made up for it. I must start backing those long shots :o

That's it for the time being. There's something else in the workshop but it's a little way away.

Prices from the B.A.T. Gold Play was a scratching.


====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
BLMT02-05 Hide The Loot 3.45 ... WON -2.45
BLMT05-06 Old Guru 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BLMT07-01 Arctic Park 10.00 ... WON -9.00
BLMT07-08 River Mist 9.40 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL03-07 Tic Toc Tac 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-04 Authoress 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-08 Wheel The Lead 11.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN06-08 Juivanka 9.00 ... LOST +1.00
MORN07-06 Chu Chu Mama 4.60 ... LOST +1.00
RAND03-07 Grizz 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH06-02 Chiack 8.20 ... LOST +1.00
SANH08-12 Corporal Nediym* 8.00 ... LOST +1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 157.00
Observed Successes: 139.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.54%
Expected Successes: 127.01
Expected Strike Rate: 80.90%
Advantage: 9.44%
Success due to luck: 0.27%
Profit: +27.15 units
Commission @ 5%: -6.95 units
Net Profit: +20.20 units
Net ROI: +12.86% :)
====================

====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BLMT02-03 Mythalo 14.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-06 Metal Power 25.00 ... LOST -1.00
BLMT06-07 Reactive Thunder 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-01 El Seigneur 13.50 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL05-07 Miss Presley 22.00 ... LOST -1.00
CHEL07-10 Silent Action 12.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST09-09 Crackaway 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
HAWK09-12 Jewel Point 32.00 ... WON +31.00
MORN06-06 Robbery Under Arms 12.50 ... LOST -1.00
MORN08-05 Senor De Lago 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORN09-07 Madison Trail 18.50 ... LOST -1.00
RAND02-02 Avoid Heathrow 27.00 ... LOST -1.00
RAND05-07 Rose Of Ghataas 20.00 ... LOST -1.00
SANH08-04 Snappy Tom 15.00 ... LOST -1.00
SCST02-06 Court Adjourned 16.50 ... LOST -1.00

Results April 21st - June 30th
----------
Number of Selections: 188.00
Observed Successes: 15.00
Observed Strike Rate: 7.98%
Expected Successes: 9.60
Expected Strike Rate: 5.11%
Advantage: 56.26%
Success due to luck: 14.61%
Profit: +113.00 units
Commission @ 5%: -15.05 units
Net Profit: +97.95 units
Net ROI: +52.10% :D
====================


* I gave Corporal Nediym a promotion when I posted the selections.

Well done Angry Pixie, it's all good hey ;)

Interesting to note the profit and POT is better by backing the longer horses than laying the shorter ones.

Combine them both and you have a pretty good consistent return.

Thanks Chrome. It's done pretty well for such a simple system. The profit and advantage figures are merging together a bit but I'll be happy if I can keep the lay side around the 10% mark. There'll be better prices now it's not public.

Saturday was one of the best day's on the lay this year. Finished 30.9 units up :D

Selections: March 8th 2008
 

Let's blow the cobwebs off and see if this still works. Lay if $11 or less at the jump, otherwise back them. Other venues to follow. :)

E_FM02-13 Beartracker
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation
FLEM06-02 Magnus
FLEM09-06 Orange County
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince
NCLE09-04 Centover
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam

Selections: March 8th 2008 cont.
 

BR_H03-04 Delta Devil
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester
EHPE06-06 Ivortov
EHPE08-04 Kanejake
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly
GCST06-06 Legally Hot
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset
TWBA05-11 Laertes
TWBA07-09 But Say

Doing well so far, Pixie (touch wood).

Results: March 8th 2008
 

Well that still works I guess. The "Lay 11.00 or less" group could have been better but only finished -2.55* units down. The "Back 11.50 or greater" group did well and ended +$19.97* units up. Overall a +17.42* unit profit for the day. Not too bad for an old system. I'll have another go some other day.

Prices from B.A.T.

====================
Lay 11.00 or less
----------
E_FM02-13 Beartracker 7.40 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM03-03 Rhymenoreason 5.50 ... LOST +0.95
E_FM04-04 Reincarnation 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE06-06 Ivortov 8.80 ... LOST +0.95
EHPE08-04 Kanejake 8.00 ... LOST +0.95
FLEM09-06 Orange County 9.20 ... WON -8.20
GCST05-05 Tread Lightly 10.50 ... LOST +0.95
GCST06-06 Legally Hot 11.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE01-04 Lady's Counsel 5.00 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE07-03 Alotta Lute 6.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE08-02 Carnegie Prince 5.80 ... WON -4.80
NCLE09-04 Centover 9.20 ... LOST +0.95
NCLE09-10 Oriental Belle 9.00 ... LOST +0.95
====================
====================
Back 11.50 or greater
----------
BR_H03-04 Delta Devil 15.00 ... WON +13.3
BR_H04-06 Dandy Jester 23.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM06-02 Magnus 16.00 ... LOST -1.00
FLEM09-09 Count To Zero 13.00 ... LOST -1.00
GCST05-03 Gypsy Mist 11.50 ... LOST -1.00
GCST06-08 Kalinga Ivor 42.00 ... LOST -1.00
MORP08-07 Catwalk Minnie 75.00 ... LOST -1.00
RHIL09-05 Spy Zam 21.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA03-05 Aussie Sunset 28.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA05-11 Laertes 34.00 ... LOST -1.00
TWBA07-09 But Say 17.50 ... WON +15.67
====================


* 5% Betfair commission has been deducted from all wins

Selections: March 15th 2008
 

Let's push out luck a little more. Other venues to follow.

FLEM02-01 Merlot Now
FLEM02-07 Lancettier
FLEM07-06 Cargo Cult
GEEL01-02 Distraction
GEEL08-06 Green Gem
K_GR05-05 Catchadane
K_GR10-07 I r i s h Myth
RHIL01-07 Lancaster Park
RHIL04-05 Exinite
RHIL05-03 Canary Islands
TAR_03-02 Sequenjar

Selections: March 15th 2008 cont.
 

CHEL03-05 Gold Lens
CHEL03-09 Shanetty
CHEL04-04 Le Niska
DOOM01-07 I'm A Leader
DOOM01-08 Monashee Knight
DOOM02-07 Oh Ruby
DOOM03-04 Digging Deep
DOOM04-04 Sir Coup
DOOM05-05 Fine Cheval
DOOM08-11 Spirito Volante
GCST05-08 Jakelli
GCST06-06 Scent Of Gold
GCST07-03 Patties Mate
GCST08-01 Teletrader
GCST09-04 Norse Code

Selections: March 15th 2008 cont.
 

TWBA01-09 Mother Craft
TWBA03-03 Backinaflash
TWBA04-03 Casaco

That's it for today!