ATP Tour Tennis '06
 

Welcome guys

Hoping to provide ATP Tour selections and writeups on a continual basis, hopefully with the same success as last season. Last year was my first year posting plays and as you may already be aware they proved quite successful. I achieved a return on investment (ROI) of over 20% and was able to turn a profit on a weekly basis.

I do not use any specific systems nor do I believe in following specific trends, I just analyse each specific match individually, drawing from what I have uncovered over my years of playing and watching tennis.

As always I will be using a 1-10 unit staking system, with the average play being approximately 2-5 units.

Feel free to offer any support, whether it be constructive criticism or just a few words of wisdom. I'm always willing to gain expereince from other punters and hopefully together we can clean out the bookies.

Good luck and happy punting

Betsy

Hopman Cup - Australia vs Germany
 

Just transfering this one across from the Tennis Betting thread.

Kiefer easily accounted for Arthurs (6-3 6-4) who never really looked in it.

Hopman Cup - Session 3 (S&M vs USA)
 

Serbia and Montenegro vs. USA looks to be one of the better matchups on paper that the Hopman Cup has to offer. By rights this one should go down to the last match.

Djokovic is value at $2.65 against Taylor Dent. If the end of last season is anything to go by Djokovic will cause a few problems for alot of the big named players this year. He showed his talent at the '05 US Open where he accounted for Monfils and Ancic only to lose to Verdasco in 5 tight sets. My main concern is Dent's previous record (over the past two years) during the Australian summer swing. Dent has posted some great results at the commencement of the previous two seasons, including a finals appearance at Adelaide last year where he lost to an in form J Johansson. I see the match at about 55-45 in Dent's favour therefore value is with Djokovic.

I'm not sure if I will pull the trigger or not on this one but will let you know either way.

Good luck all

1st January - No Selections
 

Djokovic has come right in to $2.20 at Centrebet from the $2.65 it opened at yesterday. I won't be playing this match as there are too many uncertainties and the value for Djokovic has dried up. A safer bet for the day looks to be Ivanovic to beat Lisa Raymond at $1.28.

No plays today

Good luck lads

ATP 2nd January - Adelaide Int & Hopman Cup
 

Tomas Berdych over Agustin Calleri @ $1.44

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Don't worry about their last match or Berdych's poor form early in 05, he has improved out of sight since then. The exciting thing is at only 20 years old he still has much to learn. Calleri, at 30 years old, is at home on clay. He holds a mere 5-9 win/loss record on hardcourt and should prove no match for the Czech.

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.167

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 3 Units

The low price doesn't concern me here as this one is money for jam and the odds reflect that. In Blake's last five hardcourt tournaments he has won two and also made the final and quarters of two others. All three of Blake's losses were to players ranked inside the top ten (Federer, Roddick, Agassi).

Martin on the other hand is a handy claycourter but is far from at home on hardcourt. If you don't like these odds, you may want to place Blake in a parlay with Berdych to increase the odds. All I can say is that this is better than bank interest!

Other Leans include:

Chela over Karlovic @ $2.00 - Hate going against the big Croat but Chela is more than worth a shot at $2
Robredo over Melzer @ $1.77 - Melzer performed well at Adelaide last year but Robredo is value here, a class above Melzer

Good luck all

Hi Betsy,

Enjoy your posts, but, do you realise that a 60% chance equates to a price of $1.66?

So, by taking $1.46 you are taking way under the odds based on your assessment?

Thanks for that thebookie, my percentage estimate of Kiefer's chance of success was only an approximation and wasn't worked out by crunching numbers or anything like that. I've always wanted to know how to convert odds to percentages, I'm sure it's not too hard but I've never stopped and worked it out. Could you guide me in the right direction mate?

Two from Two
 

Berdych df. Calleri 6-4 6-7 6-4

As there is no live scoreboard for the Adelaide International if you want in game scores your best bet is to listen to ABC radio and wait for them to cross from the cricket to the tennis scores around Australia

Possibly going to play Haas over Wawrinka later this afternoon, will wait till closer to game time before locking it in though

Good luck all

Hi Betsy,
Since I've read your posts, it seems you have my attention, I play tennis and I like watching it. I've never put money on a match before, but that could change.
Some of these player I really don't know enough about them, I've looked about the web looking for the best site for more info, but I'm wondering if you could point me in the right direction.

Thanks
Papy

Hey papyrus,

I'd probably start with atptennis.com/en/players/

You can search for individual players records and biographies or put two players in and find their head-to-head records. It's always a good start to just follow the action, watching as many matches as you can while keeping up with other results across the world.

You've chosen a good time to look into tennis betting as the players are coming back from their breaks and are often playing better/worse than the previous season. Therefore, not knowing the quality of all the players from previous seasons may help you analyse their current form, without having any preconceived ideas floating around.

Following other punters analysis can often help but you will find after some time you will start to form your own opinion on each matchup.

menstennisforums.com is a good place to go and chat about tennis betting. The Gamblers Lounge (Tennis Betting) is where most of the action takes place (My username is Breaker).

Good luck if you choose to have a punt, don't take it too seriously - at the end of the day it's all a bit of fun

Cheers

Betsy

ATP 2nd January - Hopman Cup
 

Thomas Johansson over Novak Djokovic @ $1.402

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1 Unit

After seeing Dent dismantle Djokovic in straight sets yesterday I cannot see Johansson having any troubles in this one. Although he boasts bucketloads of natural talent, Djokovic seems to struggle to out manoeuvre his opponents, opting for the bash and crash method when times are tough. Novak was unable to find any rythm on his serve yesterday and in turn was broken twice in his first two service games. Johansson, although not having the greatest year last year, finished with a 19-14 win/loss record on hardcourt and seems to play well on Australian soil. He should prove too experienced for the young Serbian and I can see him winning this in two.

Good luck all

Nice start
 

ATP 3rd January - Hopman Cup, Doha, Adelaide etc
 

Today we have a few short priced favourites that tickle my fancy.

Pending:

James Blake over Alberto Martin @ $1.17
Start time: 2:30pm EDST


Considering today:

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33
Start time: ~9:30pm EDST

Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20
Start time: 11:30pm EDST

Igor Andreev over Potito Starace @ $1.31
Start time: 12:00am EDST


Will post final plays well before first match (Wessels v Reid)

Good luck all

Betsy

Thanks Betsy,
You'll see me over there at menstennis as "aussieigor" when they let me in?
if they let me in.

ATP 3rd January - Hopman Cup
 

Peter Wessels over Todd Reid @ $1.33

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Wessels has shown good form of late with two wins from two at this years Hopman Cup. However this play is more against Reid than capitalising on Wessels form. Reid had an injury plagued 2005 and never really posted any respectable results. The only reason this price is around the $1.30 mark is due to the crowds support of Reid. However, this has never proven helpful in the past for Reid. Sure he posted some wins in 04 on Australian soil, but they were against pretty average opposition. He also struggled with nerves upon representing Australia in Davis Cup. Overall I can't go past a straight sets win by Wessels here, he is far more experienced and the indoor court with help his big serving game.

More play/s to come

Sure Betsy it's easy.

If you're working out probabilities of a player winning a match (such as 60-40)

then you just divide 1 by the % chance of winning (in this case 60%)

So, 1/0.60 = $1.66

and

1/0.40 = $2.50

That gives you a market marked to 100%

4-0, +2.49 Units (ROI 33.2%)
 

Blake wins with ease, 6-3 6-3.

Papyrus - Will see you at MTF soon, it shouldn't take long to activate your account

thebookie - Thanks champ, that's easier than I imagined, and to think I just completed Specialist Maths last year


Nikolay Davydenko over C Rochus @ $1.20

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 2 Units

Another short priced fav here, doesn't worry me at all as this one is overs. Davydenko is by far the superior player here and comes up against the lesser of the Rochus brothers in what should be a routine victory for the Ukraine. Davydenko is an all surface player (maybe not grass), able to match it with the best on clay whilst boasting a 22-14 win/loss record on hardcourt. Last year he beat the likes of Hrbaty, Ancic, Gonzalez and Berdych on hardcourt and only really lost to quality players. Davydenko played well at this tournament last year, losing to the eventual winner (Federer) in the SF. On the other hand, Rochus showed glimpses of good form last year but never really showed anything that would make me think twice about this result. Davydenko in two.

Best of luck to you all

PS. If you don't like the odds then get stuffed (just kidding). You might like to place Wessels and Davydenko in a multi for odds around $1.50

Wessels wins 7-5 6-4

6-0
 

Davydenko wins 6-3 6-1

Another perfect day, going 3-0, +1.57 Units

ATP 4th January - Adelaide Int
 

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray @ $1.84

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 0.5 Units

Last time the two met Berdych had a number of chances to win the match, and should have taken them. Berdych finished last year off well beating the likes of Ljubicic, Ferrero, Stepanek and Coria. If he carries that form to Australia then this should be an easy win for the Czech. Murray on the other hand only really had one good tournament on hc, making the final in Thailand where he was beaten by Federer. However, for the majority of last year Murray played Challengers and even some Futures. I don't believe he is at the level where he can consitantly beat quality players such as Berdych, however, that doesn't mean the Brits can't hype him up as the next big thing.

Sorry about the late notice, I took Berdych for 0.5 units at $1.84 when the market came out but was too tired to post a writeup. Match starts in 30 mins.

ATP 4th January - Hopman Cup
 

Nicolas Kiefer over Gaston Gaudio @ $1.48

Source: Pinnacle Sports
Stake: 1.5 Units

Germany is favourite to win the Hopman Cup and have started their campaign off well, therefore there is no questioning the motivation of Kiefer here to give it his best. Kiefer looked impressive in his straight sets win over Arthurs, breaking Arthurs at will and holding his serve with ease. In contrast, Gaudio was beaten in straight sets by Wessels in his first match, unable to find a rythm on his serve and continuosly foot faulting. Kiefer will have no problems with his high ball toss at Burswood Dome as it is indoors. I can't see Gaudio going through a set without being broken, he is half the player he is on clay when he steps out onto hardcourt. Kiefer in two.

Sorry about the late notice here, Kiefers price has also come in, however I got on early enough to get the ~$1.50 odds

Not till tomorrow guys. Sorry!

Mario Ancic V Xavier Malisse.

Who would you back?

Hi betsy

Happy new year and all the best to you and other forum tennis punters and I hope we all have a great punting year.

I will attempt to post my selections here as best I can. Telstra upgraded our telephone box and at least the dial-up is reliable but slow as snails. I haven't the time to post detailed explainations of each match.

I am busy now but will come back later in the week with an explanation of my selection methods.

Today I am on

Karlovic bt Carlsen $1.50 (Adelaide)
Hrbaty bt Phillipousis $1.36 (Adelaide)
Youzhny bt Sanguinetti $1.45 (Doha)
Ascione bt Behrend $1.65 (Chennai)
Tursanov bt El Anouyi $1.40???? (Doha)

All selection are from an age situation which is 215 wins - 81 losses since 2003 for an ROI of 5%.

This is my most marginal system and right on my minimum % so I am playing these selections for 1/2 unit only this year.

Karla

7-0, +4.27 Units (SR 100%, ROI 33%)
 

Kiefer beats Gaudio in straight sets, 6-3, 6-3

Good to see you back Karla, good luck with your plays

Kitch - sorry I couldn't get back to you before the start of play, just got off the golf course. I wouldn't touch it, Ancic was in poor form at the end of 05 and Xavier Malisse is talented but unpredictable at the best of times.

No more plays for today, unless I take Moodie over Monfils at $2.91

ATP 4th January - Doha
 

------------------------------------------

ATP Tour '06 Betting Overview

Selections: 7

Won: 7

Lost: 0

SR: 100%

Staked: 13 Units

Return: 17.27 Units

Profit: 4.27 Units

ROI: 32.9%

------------------------------------------

First underdog for '06!

Wesley Moodie over Gael Monfils @ $3.10

Source: Centrebet
Stake: 0.27 Units

This one is overs! The big serving South African should show some fight in this matchup. He has posted some great results coming into this season and has continued to impress with a three set win over Max Mirnyi in his first round at Doha. Monfils is one of the up and coming youngsters who hasn't yet reached the high expectations thrust upon him after a successful junior career. He is still learning and, like Murray, is yet to show that he can consistently beat quality opponents. Monfils 12-10 '05 hardcourt record is slightly skewed by his finals appearance late last year in his home country France. Other than this result Monfils results were average at best. Moodie may prove too experienced for the Frenchman and I can see this one being won in three tight sets. I rate Monfils a 60% chance at best here, therefore the $3+ available at Centrebet is worth a small go.

Good luck

Betsy

hi betsy,

ive always checked your tips with great interest. im just a tennis fan who has the odd small bet here and there nothing serious, but this year im going to try to keep a record and do it more seriously.

im following your bets and i will post anything thats takes my fancy as well!

glad to see you backed an underdog as last year i got so fed up of losing on short priced favourites that i decided to only go on the close matches and this returned me much better!

congratulations on 7 out of 7 so far!

Hrbaty to beat Philippoussis @ 1.44

Hrbaty is a good all court player and should have too much for Philipoussis who has struggled for ages and only got past the 2nd round twice last year (i think). Hrbaty also beat him last year indoors and shouldn't have too many problems even against the Aussie crowd. I would have expected Hrbaty to be shorter then 1.44 hence why i've got on it.

First loss (only 0.27 units though)
 

Moodie lost 7-6 6-4

Good fight by the South African, he was playing with a shoulder injury in the second set and managed to hold serve 4 times out of 5. As suspected the match was much closer than the odds predicted, and although bookies don't care whether its close or not, I'm happy with the result. No pressure to keep a perfect record now, haha.

bobjoe66 - Thanks for the kind words, good luck with the Hrbaty bet. Nice to have someone contributing to the thread.

Today we have:

Tomas Berdych over Andy Murray - 0.5 Units (Small play)
As posted yesterday

Also looking into Kiefer over Wessels at Hopman Cup and maybe even Dent over Johansson. Will post the plays (if any) after analysis.

Good luck and happy punting
Betsy

Hello Betsy. I´m a newcomer in this forum living in Sweden. Very intrested in tennis and bets around it. Will follow your page as an hawk. :)
Can tell one thing about Johansson. According to swedish texttv he have big problems with a bad foot and some strange skininfection.
Thomas sais: i have had feber and my right foot was swallowed as a football.Says further that he have had big porblems recent days and was very happy to win today. Sorry my poor spelling. I´m backing Taylor. Goodnight from a cold Sweden

Hey mate, good to have you on board. In regards to Johansson, that's one of my reasons for liking Dent, they spoke about it during the coverage of the Hopman Cup. Dent seems to be loving the indoor conditions anyway and is favourite here for all the right reasons. Johansson also struggled against Schukin yesterday. Should post a play on Dent soon, but will do a bit more analysis first.

Good luck buddy

Hey Betsy mate, I will be following this thread as well :)

Two young gamblers going at it mate, while AFL and cricket is my specialty I have played and followed Tennis for 8 years or so.

Adelaide Matches today:

12:15PM	A Murray v T Berdych	2.10	1.68	More Bets
2:00PM	M Philippoussis v D Hrbaty	3.00	1.36	More Bets
3:15PM	I Karlovic v K Carlsen	1.48	2.55	More Bets

What you reckon mate?

In short, Berdych, Hrbaty and Karlovic

However, I will only be playing Berdych (only small) as the other favourites don't represent value in my eyes. I have a small writeup on the Berdych/Murray match earlier in this thread.

Karlovic and Carlsen are both big servers and although Karlovic is a justified favourite, this match could be decided by two or three tiebreaks.

Hrbaty showed some remarkable form last season but it's hard to know what Flip got up to over the tennis break. He seems fitter than I've seen him before and when he's on he can cause some upsets so ~$1.40 for Hrbaty doesn't seem worth the risk.

Good luck with whatever plays you decide on
Betsy

Thanks mate, yeah just read the write up.

Where do you get live scores from mate?

Scores are hard to come by
 

This is probably the worst week of the season for getting live tennis scores. Doha, Chennai and Adelaide don't have any live scores on their sites so it makes it hard to follow matches as they take place. Your best bet is the Mens Tennis Forum, as some of these guys will call up the tournament box and ask for current scores. If they get their hands on any scores, they will generally be posted in that forum

http://www.menstennisforums.com/ - In the current tournament section there is normally a thread dedicated to scores

Other than that:

www.hopmancup.com.au - All hopman cup matches have live scores updated point by point

www.tipex.sk/live.php - If there is a Doha match on TV this site will give point by point updates

Hi Betsy

Looks like we are getting some nice interaction this year. That will be great. I use www livescore.com for getting scores. It only puts them up by game and can be slow, but it has the advantage of putting up all the days matches early so you know who is playing. It also has the WTA and ice hockey scores which are of interest to me. It also loads quite quickly.

Off to a good start with 3 straight set winners in Youzhny, Tursanov and Ascione overnight.

Only 1 pick for tonight at Doha.

I will be on Davydenko bt Volandri $1.17 for 1 unit.

This is a database bet. The database is now 222 wins v 53 losses since January 2003 for an ROI of 7.6%. Davydenko qualifies in 2 subsets which are 47-13 (9.5%) and 50-8 (5%). After the Aussie open starts this would be a 2.5 unit bet but because it is the start of the season and the lousy odds, 1 unit will suffice. If you have qualms about taking low prices then give it a miss.

Volandri is a very gutsy player who chases everything. Unfortunatly for him, hard courts are not his forte. Last year he went 0-9 losing to all 4 seeds he met. He gets to the q/f here by beating 2 very ordinary hard court players Mahut and Starace who went 2-13 on hard in 2005. Davydenko is not the greatest hard court player but is a class above and did reach the s/f here last year losing to Federer. So he must like the conditions.

Federer is also a database selection but at $1.04 is a no bet.

Good punting
karla

I was looking at that one this morning, looks solid. You can get $1.20 at Pinnacle at the moment. Still tossing up whether to play this or not.

**Just rang the Adelaide Int media room and Berdych leads 7-6 2-2

Betsy

AT Pinnacle, how did you get the money to them. I am reluctant to send pictures of a credit card. Be grateful for a response.

Really hope Betfair in Tassie gets going.

K

I think I chose the worst option to send money to Pinnacle. I sent a 'Wire Transfer' (I think thats what they call it). It just involved going to the bank and getting them to send money from an account into Pinnacles account, however, it wasn't as easy as it sounds. Not only did the transaction get rejected twice, it also cost $35 just to send the money that way.

You'll find that Pinnacle is a reputable bookie, possibly the best I've ever dealt with in terms of customer service. They also have the best odds going round by a country mile.

SCORE UPDATE: 7-6 4-6 2*-1

Thanks mate

They also (I think) have a withdrawal fee. But the odds are always very good as you noted and over time they represent value. I will wait a bit and see if Betfair gets going soon as there having a government decision in February.

That Moodie fellow (imo) lives up to his name. Pulls lots of wins as a dog and crashes a lot also. AT least we don't have to put up with that Puerta sob anymore.

K