Trust the public Tips
 

Trying a new system that has a quite a high number of bets each day. The system relies on trusting the public and finding "good" favouties. For the purpose of the system a fav is anything that goes off at $5 or less.

The only requirements for the horses below to be a bet are they start at $5 or lower on a tote (with about 30 secs to go) and the track condition is good or fast.

SEYMOUR - 02 - ASTRAL DANZA
SEYMOUR - 03 - BEIJING MAGIC
SEYMOUR - 03 - LIGHT VISION
SEYMOUR - 04 - DARK NOTE
SEYMOUR - 05 - TRADITIONAL BLUES
SEYMOUR - 06 - SUNBURNT LAND
SEYMOUR - 07 - JOEY JO JO
SEYMOUR - 08 - FORMAL ATTIRE
BALAKLAVA - 08 - JIM S PARTY
BALAKLAVA - 08 - SILENT ACTION
BELMONT - 02 - THE FUTURE
BELMONT - 03 - KATZ KID
BELMONT - 06 - WEST RIVER BOY

The betting will be $1 for a WIN and $1 for a place. No Progression just flat stakes.

Starting Bank is $100

All quoted prices for results will be Betfair odds (and if betfair odds are not available then we use UNITAB odds.)

Good Luck

SEYMOUR - 02 - ASTRAL DANZA - NO BET
SEYMOUR - 03 - BEIJING MAGIC - SCRATCHED
SEYMOUR - 03 - LIGHT VISION - WIN $2.40 / $1.21
SEYMOUR - 04 - DARK NOTE - NO BET
SEYMOUR - 05 - TRADITIONAL BLUES - NO BET
SEYMOUR - 06 - SUNBURNT LAND - SCRATCHED
SEYMOUR - 07 - JOEY JO JO - 3rd $1.58
SEYMOUR - 08 - FORMAL ATTIRE 2nd $1.54
BALAKLAVA - 08 - JIM S PARTY - NO BET
BALAKLAVA - 08 - SILENT ACTION - NO BET
BELMONT - 02 - THE FUTURE 2nd $2.00
BELMONT - 03 - KATZ KID - NO BET
BELMONT - 06 - WEST RIVER BOY - NO BET

Total Win Bets : 4
Return : $2.40

Total Place Bets: 4
Return : $6.33

Total Bets: 8
Return : $8.73

Profitable day overall.

Good Luck.

Not as many selections today:

MT GAMBIER - 07 - DAVINCIS SECRET
NORTHAM - 02 - LIFE BECKONS
NORTHAM - 06 - AERIAL MUSTER
NORTHAM - 08 - WEST RIVER BOY

Good Luck.

wesmip1,

How are you deciding that the horses you put up are going to start public favorites, or are they pre-post favorites from the newspaper or something? How do you determine which horses to list here?

I think he's using a certain selection criteria (which has nothing to do with odds), and then he only backs them if they start $5 or less.

Crash,

Sportz is correct.

I have developed a way of determining if a market fav is worth backing. It is based on a number of rules (one of which is last start winner). But of course I don't know which horse will be a fav at runtime so this is a method which requires you to be sitting in front of the pc watching the prices. If it looks like the horse will go at $5 or less then its a bet.

The only other condition is that the track should be rated GOOD or FAST.

Good Luck.

I guess you could set up some sort of trigger betting program, that bets "only if".

I know myself, it gets very frustrating if you watch for the whole day and only one horse qualifies.

Chrome Prince,

Done that myself ... and it works quite well. Currently reads all tabs and places the bet on betfair if it meets certain criteria.

Good Luck.

MT GAMBIER - 07 - DAVINCIS SECRET - NO BET
NORTHAM - 02 - LIFE BECKONS - 2nd $2.00
NORTHAM - 06 - AERIAL MUSTER - WIN $4.00 / $1.63
NORTHAM - 08 - WEST RIVER BOY - LOST
Total Win Bets : 7
Return : $6.40

Total Place Bets: 7
Return : $9.96

Total Bets: 14
Return : $16.36

Overall still in profit.

Tommorrows bets:

Remeber Must be $5 or lower on a tote and TrackCondition must be GOOD or FAST.

ALICE SPRINGS - 01 - CAMDEN
CANBERRA - 05 - BANDJIN
MOE - 09 - CHIEFCOMINGFIRST
SANDOWN - 01 - BLOKKATOO
SANDOWN - 02 - ACES HIGH
SANDOWN - 03 - DUNES
SANDOWN - 04 - MOONLOUSHE
SANDOWN - 05 - FIVECOUGARSTHANKS
SANDOWN - 06 - BARLINNIE
SANDOWN - 06 - SUNBURNT LAND
SANDOWN - 07 - ANASAR
SANDOWN - 07 - STRANGE LADY
SANDOWN - 09 - SANJUAN




Good Luck.

For those that are interested in the longer term trend of this selection system I have posted some stats below from the construction and inital testing periods.

Races: 4578
WROT : 107.8% ( 7.8% Profit )
PROT : 109.0% ( 9% Profit)

Strike rates were 35% for WIN and 71% for place.

Good Luck.

ALICE SPRINGS - 01 - CAMDEN - NO BET
CANBERRA - 05 - BANDJIN - NO BET
MOE - 09 - CHIEFCOMINGFIRST - NO BET
SANDOWN - 01 - BLOKKATOO - - NO BET
SANDOWN - 03 - DUNES - NO BET
SANDOWN - 05 - FIVECOUGARSTHANKS - NO BET
SANDOWN - 06 - SUNBURNT LAND - NO BET
SANDOWN - 07 - ANASAR - NO BET
SANDOWN - 07 - STRANGE LADY - NO BET

SANDOWN - 02 - ACES HIGH - WIN $3.00 / $1.35
SANDOWN - 04 - MOONLOUSHE - LOST - 4th
SANDOWN - 06 - BARLINNIE - WIN $2.48 / $1.39
SANDOWN - 09 - SANJUAN - WIN $2.10 / $1.30

Total Win Bets : 11
Return : $13.98

Total Place Bets: 11
Return : $14.00

Total Bets: 22
Return : $27.98 (27% Profit)

Continuing the winning run since posting the selections. Also some of our non bets ran good places for double digit returns.

For those interested these selections are based on a combination of best times, avg times and last times which I post each day (except for last race times - these are not posted)

Good Luck.

BELMONT - 02 - VILLA ROCCA
BELMONT - 05 - MR DIAGNOSIS
BELMONT - 07 - BLAZING COLORADO
DARWIN - 01 - CALL ME LUCKY
DARWIN - 02 - CARNEGGAN JESTER
DARWIN - 03 - ANXIOUS WARRIOR
DARWIN - 05 - COOL KITTEN
FLEMINGTON - 02 - BARBARICUS
FLEMINGTON - 06 - SCENIC BLAST
FLEMINGTON - 08 - ROMAN SQUIRE
MORPHETTVILLE - 02 - BLAZING STARS
MORPHETTVILLE - 03 - FALVELON S DREAM
MORPHETTVILLE - 04 - GENERAL MARKET
MORPHETTVILLE - 04 - METHODICAL BOY
NEW ZEALAND - 10 - ROANAH
WARWICK FARM - 04 - WAFER
AUCKLAND - 01 - UNCOVERED
AUCKLAND - 04 - LON YORK
AUCKLAND - 07 - TAUKIRI
AUCKLAND - 08 - CAPE KINAVERAL
AUCKLAND - 09 - PLEASURE CRUISER
Good Luck.

BELMONT - 02 - VILLA ROCCA - NO BET
BELMONT - 07 - BLAZING COLORADO - NO BET
DARWIN - 05 - COOL KITTEN - NO BET
FLEMINGTON - 02 - BARBARICUS - NO BET
FLEMINGTON - 06 - SCENIC BLAST - NO BET
FLEMINGTON - 08 - ROMAN SQUIRE - NO BET
MORPHETTVILLE - 02 - BLAZING STARS -NO BET
MORPHETTVILLE - 04 - METHODICAL BOY -NO BET
WARWICK FARM - 04 - WAFER - NO BET
AUCKLAND - 01 - UNCOVERED - NO BET
AUCKLAND - 04 - LON YORK - NO BET
AUCKLAND - 07 - TAUKIRI - NO BET
AUCKLAND - 08 - CAPE KINAVERAL - NO BET
AUCKLAND - 09 - PLEASURE CRUISER - NO BET
NEW ZEALAND - 10 - ROANAH - NO BET
BELMONT - 05 - MR DIAGNOSIS - NO BET

DARWIN - 01 - CALL ME LUCKY - WIN $1.40 / $1.00
DARWIN - 02 - CARNEGGAN JESTER - WIN $1.50 / $1.20
DARWIN - 03 - ANXIOUS WARRIOR - LOST
MORPHETTVILLE - 03 - FALVELON S DREAM - LOST
MORPHETTVILLE - 04 - GENERAL MARKET - LOST

Not a great day today with very short priced winners.


Total Win Bets : 16
Return : $16.88

Total Place Bets: 16
Return : $16.20

Total Bets: 32
Return : $33.08

Still ahead after a shocking day.

Good Luck.

From today if you notice a selection posted more than once it means that it should be bet for that many units. For example FiveCougarThanks is posted 3 times today meaning 3 units should be bet on it.


BENDIGO - 04 - AMERICAN MORSECODE
BENDIGO - 07 - SACRED SURMARDI
BENDIGO - 07 - SACRED SURMARDI
BENDIGO - 07 - SACRED SURMARDI
BENDIGO - 09 - FIVECOUGARSTHANKS
BENDIGO - 09 - FIVECOUGARSTHANKS
BENDIGO - 09 - FIVECOUGARSTHANKS
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 04 - TURFISTE
GOLD COAST - 05 - CALCHRIS
MORTLAKE - 06 - COOL POINT
KALGOORLIE - 05 - LANDSCAPES
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 01 - HUSH MY NEDI
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 05 - MANNIX HOUSE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 08 - SPIRIT OF ARCHIE
HOBART - 09 - SOUTH REEF
HOBART - 09 - SOUTH REEF
HOBART - 09 - SOUTH REEF

Good Luck