Radio TAB selections
 

Does anybody have the figures for the place SR of the top RadioTAb tips? How much of a loss do they make in the long term?

Edit: Wait I found a bug in my code and it was retrieving incorrect data. Will go fix that before I start giving stats...

Fixed. Here's my data for Jan - Oct 2008:

Top One Tab Tip
Selections: 12636
1st: 3232 (25.58%)
2nd: 2136 (16.9%)
3rd: 1717 (13.59%)
Not Placed: 5551 (43.93%)
Avg Win Price: 4.16
Avg Plc Price: 1.73

Top Two Tab Tips
Selections: 25271
1st: 5528 (21.87%)
2nd: 4178 (16.53%)
3rd: 3481 (13.77%)
Not Placed: 12084 (47.82%)
Avg Win Price: 5.24
Avg Plc Price: 1.92

Top Three Tab Tips
Selections: 37834
1st: 7192 (19.01%)
2nd: 5987 (15.82%)
3rd: 5163 (13.65%)
Not Placed: 19492 (51.52%)
Avg Win Price: 6.29
Avg Plc Price: 2.11


Races without Tab Tips are excluded.
Some races have only 1 or 2 tips. In these cases only the horses listed in the tips are counted.

2007:

Top One Tab Tip
Selections: 14240
1st: 3655 (25.67%)
2nd: 2509 (17.62%)
3rd: 1951 (13.7%)
Not Placed: 6125 (43.01%)
Avg Win Price: 4.19
Avg Plc Price: 1.7

Top Two Tab Tips
Selections: 28475
1st: 6210 (21.81%)
2nd: 4804 (16.87%)
3rd: 3887 (13.65%)
Not Placed: 13574 (47.67%)
Avg Win Price: 5.25
Avg Plc Price: 1.89

Top Three Tab Tips
Selections: 42568
1st: 8157 (19.16%)
2nd: 6774 (15.91%)
3rd: 5820 (13.67%)
Not Placed: 21817 (51.25%)
Avg Win Price: 6.3
Avg Plc Price: 2.07


Races without Tab Tips are excluded.
Some races have only 1 or 2 tips. In these cases only the horses listed in the tips are counted.

Okay, what's going on? Surely there must be something amiss with those figures? Either that or I'm not reading them correctly or something.

Because otherwise, I declare that you've found the holy grail!!!

lol, just what i was thinking - no1 tip has win s/r of 25.67% & avg divy of $4.19, im sure bhagwan has a staking plan to make those figures work:)

Haha no way gentleman. That average price is the average of all the win prices offered for the Top Tab Tip. Some of those can be outsiders and thus skew the results of the "average" price.

Maybe should have explained that first...in a few minutes I'll get that data back and tell you the average price of just the winners. My guess is that it will be around $3

Edit: On a site note its a good example why you shouldn't trust "average" figures because while that figure is 100% correct it does not represent the expected returns you would get using this system

Some more stats for you gents on that Top One Tab Tip for 2008 (just to prove it isnt that simple!)

Longest Wining Sequence = 6
Longest Losing Sequence = 27
Average Win odds (all horses) = $4.16
Average Win odds (just winners) = $3.15

Big difference there ;)

Yeah, that's more like what I would have expected.

Damn, we'll have to keep searching for that holy grail. ;)

dang, & here i was getting set for a big one tomorrow...

crazybadger, does it get more interesting if only 100 pointers + Top Tip + placed 1st or 2nd within 21days?

Hmmm unfortunately my current data doesn't have the number of days between races so I cant do that exactly. But I did some similar combos for you (just 2008 data) that might help:

Top Tip + 100 Rating
Selections: 4214
1st: 1379 (32.72%)
2nd: 726 (17.23%)
3rd: 580 (13.76%)
Not Placed: 1529 (36.28%)
Avg Win Price (all): 3.06
Avg Win Price (winners only): 2.56
Avg Plc Price: 1.51
Longest Win Sequence: 8
Longest Losing Sequence: 23

Top Tip + 100 Rating + Placed last race
Selections: 2540
1st: 885 (34.84%)
2nd: 457 (17.99%)
3rd: 345 (13.58%)
Not Placed: 853 (33.58%)
Avg Win Price (all): 2.9
Avg Win Price (winners only): 2.46
Avg Plc Price: 1.47
Longest Win Sequence: 7
Longest Losing Sequence: 18

Top Tip + 100 Rating + Won last race
Selections: 920
1st: 319 (34.67%)
2nd: 168 (18.26%)
3rd: 124 (13.48%)
Not Placed: 309 (33.59%)
Avg Win Price (all): 2.79
Avg Win Price (winners only): 2.31
Avg Plc Price: 1.46
Longest Win Sequence: 7
Longest Losing Sequence: 12


Best I can offer you right now...stay tuned tho as I am thinking about upgrading my data structure to include heaps of extra info like dates of previous runs, what the jockey had for breakfast etc...

crazybadger, Firstly thanks very much for that, I think I'm right in saying that in all those cases the figures imporoved quite dramatically from just Top Tip, and in all cases getting VERY close to break even for the place "MECHANICALLY" So one has to ask the question were those figures Unitab? if so the gurus tell me that one can expect about 10% improvement with BEST TOTE/SP, and almost 20% with Betfair, you can see where I'm heading here????

Late mail, is definitly another way top improve things BUT this ties one to within a few minutes of 1st race time in many instances.

Another consideration I suppose is METRO-V- PROVINCIAL/Country

And another one is that last start win auomatically cuts out all the maiden races.

Well done Crazybadger,
Thanks for sharing your data base.
One thing that looks interesting from those figures is ...

.Lay all 100ptrs that ran 3rd last time not to run a place .

.Must be 1.40 - 1.90 in the place market.

Is it possible to run this idea through your data base.

We are looking for a Loss On Turnover (LOT)

Cheers.

Bringing up this thread again, I see that Crazybadger has been suspended. But going back to the original stats, where it seemed that the top tip for a win showed a profit (until he clarified his stats), does anybody have the corrected figures the place return? The SR should be correct (around 56%), but am after the loss figures specifically.

Hope somebody can help?

Cheers

Crazybadger chose not to contact us and change his/her registered forum e-mail address to one that does not bounce.

Moderator.

Radio TAB Top selection only.
58% plc , 87% ROI


Radio Top selection + 100ptr
66% plc , 91% ROI

Cheers.

TAB fixed price
 

Hi, anyone keeping a comparative record between the normal TAB divi and the fixed divi?
If so, can you share it please.
Thanks

Cheers Bhagwan.