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Calling Raven
Hi Raven,
Not sure I'm allowed to pursue this, but you put it up on a public thread, so lets see how we go? What do you do when more than one selection in a race? It happens! Strictly according to the rules re position on the turn and also on previous runs, I excluded the races where this info was not available, which is most prov. races and some met races as well. Where it was available, and complied with your specs. it performed exactly 100% worth than when ignored. Ie. half the return. Works only on met. races, mostly on Saturdays, (that's where I looked first) but this year it was treading water on Saturdays until November and then it picked up really well in the last 6 weeks, so much so that it was in profit for the year. Unfortunately before that, there were outs of up to 28. this is only preliminary because I didn't know what you do with multiple selections. Most of the profit came from odds over $5.00 to $ 15.00 although some shorties came in as well. Good luck with it. Cheers |
Thanks lomaca,
Im surprised to hear it was treading water early this year. But, in particular the freshen up horses, have had a few losing years when i was researching this, so it does happen. But overall the performance was solid. It always bounces back after a bad year too. If there are 2 selections in a race, i'd back both. If they were 1st & 2nd faves i'd probably leave the race alone though. If we were unlucky to have 3, i'd back the 2 roughest. I generally dont bet below $4 so Im more inclined to back the longer priced selections. This is just a simple system afterall, and Id magine the profit is in the higher priced selections long term. I also think we can get better overs on Betfair when the prices are longer. And yes the last 2 months have been good. It continued on Sat, 2 winners from 3 bets. I will admit that i've chopped and changed the rules as i've reasearched this through the year. Its in profit for the year all up. The rules i have now are quick and simple to go through, which is part of the deal. For the record, I'm only having 0.5% bets for the win only |
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The fact that you pick your winners from the qualifiers, and also that you bet on more than one, explains your better result. I just picked the highest TAB number, but I saw many times that the other selection actually won, so that's where the difference lies. I found it better for the win than the place, overall not a bad little system, the simpler the better I say. Have fun with it and good luck. |
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Good luck |
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I meant to say following your rules made a hack of a difference in the positive! Good luck |
Caulfield race 2 No 10 Bellabaci and No 8 Olympic Win
Good luck |
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in the Cau, race only Olympic Win qualified with the <= 4 at the turn for the last and at least one other of the last 2 previous races, although I found the POT much worse if taken into consideration anyway. The third place getter 9-TWIGINTHEDESERT qualified in all but the days to last start and paid $4.80 for the place. '-------------------------------------------------- The runner in race 7 at RAN is qualifying in all respect according to Raven's rules. Good luck. |
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it's your system, if you don't want me to post the selections just holler! I thought I post it for a few weeks when I have time, but it's your call. Good luck |
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5,6,4,3 Finished betting but will watch! Good luck |
I only bet on Saturdays so I'm not too bothered.
The basic contenders this system finds seem very solid. Theres plenty of clay to work with. Feel free to play around with new filters. I have a 3rd variant I use, but I'll keep that close to my chest for now :) I don't know if I trust it fully yet, but the results are good. I find it weird that looking for a horse to be a proven on pacer with more than one recent 1-4 pos doesn't improve the results, but it seems to be the case. |
A good example is the winner of R7 in Syd. De Dozen Stars. $15 winner. 4 wins from 11 starts & a proven on pacer. It did'nt pass my weight & days rules for this system. But it definately fits the profile of horse I'm looking for, and may have been a winner for someone else using different filters.
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"De Dozen Stars". was a pick for some (many?) I suppose because it's a proven first up horse and a good on the track performer. I personally don't put too much faith in either of those. The <= 4 criteria is definitely no advantage at all. Since I'm not interested in this and you have your system worked out, I won't bother posting the selections. Good luck |
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I meant to say it's easy to follow the rules by the newspaper form guide, but if anyone at all is interested, I can post it, it only takes me a couple of minutes. There are no selections for today, actually only met. or quality prov. races will have any qualifiers. Good luck |
Iomaca
Hello Please post. It makes a good exercise Regards Beton |
Raven's system
For tomorrow there are two selection:
Ipswitch race 6 No. 2 Strap Theory. * Geraldton race 3 No. 4 Stalik Lass ** * fully qualified according to the rules. ** missing the position at the turn rule Good luck |
For tomorrow
R: 4 ASC1812 10 Dempsey * R: 7 DOO1812 5 Informality * R: 1 FLE1812 4 Lucky Eighty Eight * (2000 M, not sure if rule is <= 2000 or < 2000) *** '------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ R: 7 ASC1812 8 Gotham City ** R: 6 DOO1812 15 Deer Valley ** R: 7 DOO1812 10 Age Of Heroes ** R: 2 FLE1812 4 Ballet Point ** R: 7 FLE1812 7 Belgietto ** R: 6 MOP1812 7 About Me ** * fully qualified according to the rules. ** missing the position at the turn rule *** also re. weight? <= 56 or < 56? |
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Stalik Lass not an on pacer looking at R&S detailed form. I had a few bets tonight: Syd R3/6 Sage of Omaha & R3/8 Surge Draw both qualified with my liberal interpretation of the on pace rule. No luck. Also Syd R7/4 Inherited, not a sytstem pick but ridden by Nash. In MV tonight, R3/3 Moulin Bleu & R6/6 Save a Penny are picks from my apprentice system. No luck as yet. As for the weight rule lomaca, 56kg should be ok as well. Very frustrating in some races where there is no runner with less than 56kg. Again you can include them and apply another filter, etc. |
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I think this is really best followed on Saturdays or feature race days. So far I have done no experimenting, but you have two solid rules in there which I already use in my rating, but not exactly the same way. I am thinking of a way to make it work on week days and hopefully for the place as well. If I have time and come up with something I post it, in the meantime others can use it as a starting point, with sound rules like these one can't go too far wrong. I found only a few prov. track winners even on Saturdays so maybe they should be left alone. Good luck |
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this should read as "NOT qualified as an on pacer" meaning that one of the rules is not met. Good luck |
My bets for Saturday:
Brs 4/6 Kaunda Brs 5/14 Pyrography Brs 5/16 Norocos Pth 4/10 Dempsey Pth 7/8 Gotham City |
The Apprentice system picks
Syd 4/3 Phenomenal Lass Syd 4/9 Rain Melody Syd 6/8 Pathian Syd 8/7 So So Sure |
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