There is a tide in the affairs of men .....
 

There is a tide in the affairs of men,
Which, taken at the flood, leads on to a fortune:

Brutus speaks of a metaphorical "tide", in the lives of human beings: by taking advantage of the high tide, one may float out to sea and travel far. Brutus assumes that we can tell when the tide is high, but characters repeatedly fail to register fate's opportunities and warnings, neglecting to choose correctly .....

• There is a Sweet Spot with a well constructed system.

• Too often punters "bet" a system from low tide to high tide and back to low tide again.

Too often punters "bet" a system from low tide to high tide and back to low tide again.

How could you possibly know this ????

Interesting concept Barny. There's a horse racing around or was last year or the year before called " Taken at the flood. " I thought it a strange name but did not know its origin.

Barny's quote got the better of me so I asked 'Google " he is my friend. I can now see the significance of the name and why a horse might finish up with a name like that.

I suppose it is also close to striking while the iron is hot or in Brutus's case while they still held some strength before the enemy increased theirs.

Floating on the high tide brings in the riches and scrambling at the low can be disastrous. So, how does this apply to gambling and the horses.

I know my wisdom comes in moments of inspiration, luck, being in the right place at the right time, etc and seems to run in patches. You get on a roll, not only in gambling but other things in your life then the tide starts to run out and you have to get off the ride as soon as possible.

Unfortunately, with the horses, the unpredictability means that even Nostradamus would have difficulty in deciding when to sit and when to jump.

If we could get a little bit of insight as to what way the wind is blowing, or whether the high water mark has been reached and the waters receding then that might just be the edge in value we are looking for.

Buggar if I know how we are going to achieve that though. Knowing what is needed and being able to achieve near enough, is the problem.

Pete

You will never know.
You will never know until the event has been done and dusted.
Only people who mess with databases of races completed can see it.
The result of tomorrows event has very little to do with todays event.
Very little.
Unlike a Flood , where there is half a chance there will be still much water tomorrow.
Fodder for the successful Punters is all.

The concept is quite simple. You must have a successful system! A key feature of having a successful system is your ability to understand why it performs as it does, including both good and bad results, and accepting that luck plays it's part too. A well constructed system will consist of interactions of logical filters when combined are somewhat representative of how a trainer might go about his / her business and most importantly, an ability to cash in on punter's misconceptions.

Favourites have had a consistent Win S/R worldwide back to the year dot and even though we don't know if the favourite is going to win the next race we can take that 30% Winning S/R to the bank. There are filters that when combined form an unbelievably powerful and logical combination = these form the Win S/R, the trainers success if you like. Usually only one other filter (rarely but sometimes two) will be used to identify the value, as previously mentioned, the cashing in on punters misconceptions.

For sure I'm going to cop it from the usual poster / s who just haven't worked hard enough, but I'll give a very simple example: Sometimes you need to put in filters, sometimes you don't. A horse dropping back in distance will not usually be successful on the back of a seven day turnaround (why would trainers do that anyway?) so maybe a filter for days between runs is important here ..... A horse that's won a few races as a two year old usually will not repeat that success as a three year old, so a system based on Win S/R needs to eliminate two year olds. Most of the systems posted on here (they're a fair while ago now) are concerned with stats, and fiddling around the edges, with next to no discussion as to what would be a logical and complimentary filter and represent how a trainer might go about their business. That's a big miss as far as I'm concerned, nearly as big as missing exploiting racing myths and discussing punter's misconceptions. I'm unable to test Ratings or Newspaper polls etc, but I have to say that I'm yet to test a system published on here that shows a profit year in year out.

The truly profitable systems would never be published on a site like this (or any other for that matter) as any profitability would likely be wiped out after the masses get on.

I have developed many systems over the past couple of years, some good some bad and some downright horrible but I have 4 systems that will never be shared with anyone as they are very profitable and so simple it's rediculous.

Thanks for sharing that with us Mattio.

I would also add Jockeys to that.
After many years of the daily grind of a computer and sky, one gets to notice a few things about certain people that can add to ones punting armory.

Would you back a first starter over 1400 metres, or a first up over 2000 metres, I would and do, IF they are from a certain stable. Most wouldn't!!

How do you feel about a Jockey that is classed as one of the top in NSW. Would you back him on a favourite that ticks all the boxes and is backed like it is unbeatable. I wouldn't and don't.

Just a couple of things that I've noticed over time and go through my head when I look at a race, ( there are many more ).

No problems :)

Plus 1.

[QUOTE=peterpan]I would also add Jockeys to that.
After many years of the daily grind of a computer and sky, one gets to notice a few things about certain people that can add to ones punting armory.

Would you back a first starter over 1400 metres, or a first up over 2000 metres, I would and do, IF they are from a certain stable. Most wouldn't!!

How do you feel about a Jockey that is classed as one of the top in NSW. Would you back him on a favourite that ticks all the boxes and is backed like it is unbeatable. I wouldn't and don't.

Just a couple of things that I've noticed over time and go through my head when I look at a race, ( there are many more ).[/QUOTE

If we had a like box on this site. I'd click it. I think over the last few days we have had some real positive threads.

Star

Maybe. But are we any closer to the Holy Grail? I think not.

Just shows how many different ways there are to profit from the punt. Each person has their own way of beating it.

When it comes to the search for the HG, every man has his own crusade I feel i.e. Less of the 'we' and more of the 'me', in this respect.
Also, with one or two big life journeys under my belt.. is becoming apparent to me that we could get to the end of the journey and realise that we have had the shiny mug in our sweaty palms the whole time. The answer being the journey itself of course, and the benefit of wisdom gathered along the way.

Better to say that we have lived our lives in search for the blessed thing most of our days (if it is a thing) and travelled the long and windy road, rather than not having lived at all ?

Here endeth...

LG

" the journey itself "

Never were truer words spoken IMHO.

First things first ..... Define the "Holy Grail". I've read about it on here probably 100+ times but haven't seen anyone describe what it is they're actually trying to achieve. Good business practice has clear objectives yet punters seem to think they don't need to apply good business practice to their punting. Haphazard comes to mind. If you're satisfied with "the journey itself" then you're a certainty to lose your hard earned on a regular basis. Take comfort that your hard earned is going into the bank accounts of those who can identify when the window of opportunity has presented itself and they've acted accordingly !!

Thought we were talking about life in general, not the punt.

No ..... UB responded to Bernie about the "Holy Grail".

Geez what chance have we got when we can't even decide if we're directing the "Holy Grail" towards the punt or towards some cosmic life journey ..... lol

Yes, we are, But I am not going to divulge it. lol

In reality, no closer at all.

Star

Yes Jose but life itself is a 'punt', it's how we got here in the 1st place.. every one of us. The biggest gamble of all perhaps - what we do with our time when it's our turn, and the opportunities that can slip away? Being satisfied with a life of lessons learned, which means often falling down but getting up again, dusting oneself down and carrying on along the way.

Yes, that's it !

LG

Holy Grail you would assume is slang for a profitable system into the future built around the individuals requirements.

Barny if your results continue to make you profit into 2013 - you have your Grail if this is what you set out to achieve.

It's Life Jim, but not as we know it!

I am bumping this because I believe it has an important part to play in life and on the punt.

Why am I so sure? Well, for one I know the reverse is almost true. When Taken at the low tide I know that I cannot take a trick, and when you are on a downer sometimes it is a long road back.

Lately, I have taken a greater interest in my selections, more importantly the short priced ones. For me, at least, the shorter the price the worse the ride or run of the race.

So much so that I have called a halt and am trying to do some forensic research into the failures. Not that I have lost a lot I haven't, my mid price selections are doing ok, but the trend is not right with these shorties.

Now, it is easy to say, foget them and worry about my winning range which I might do but it is a conundrum that I would like to solve.



Star

Hi Star,

Yes, very frustrating to see your short priced runners getting rolled for any number of reasons.

Do you have a minimum price that you do not bet under or is any price okay?

In recent years I have drawn a line through any horses under $3.30 (pretty close to the "old" 9/4). I have found, although I missed plenty of winners, I still increased my bank balance.

You may be pleasantly surprised if you relook at your figures and use $3.30 as your cut off point.

Good luck with your punting endeavours.

Star
I have just run 50 odd systems thru Betselector. yearly test. Systems that targeted the short end of the market were alright the last week of December and fell into a massive hole for the first 3 weeks of December. Once I finish I will rerun without Dec. Systems that had 40%SR O/A were producing results like 8 wins for 46 bets. So there may be something in the air.

Hi Star,

I looked at the opening price for Melbourne Saturday meetings throughout December.

Results were:-

Opening Fav...23.5%
2nd Fav.........20.6%
3rd Fav.........26.5%
4th Fav...........6.7%
5th Fav.........12.5%

My proviso is if they are equal I take the horse closest to TAB #1 first.

Obviously these are not final order of favouritism but it does show an abnormal distribution (as we would expect it).

http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=25726

Star, your comments are right at the heart of what I wanted from this thread. In my original post I said ..... "A key feature of having a successful system is your ability to understand why it performs as it does, including both good and bad results, and accepting that luck plays it's part too."

You've accepted that you need to do some forensic research to find out why your short priced horses are failing and I agree 100%. Make an allowance for luck, as it does play a role in racing. Do your research without any of your long held beliefs clouding your research. Go into this with an open mind Star. It may be that you've set up a filter based on a mis-conception or a myth, or a long held belief ..... ??

If you find out why your short priced horses are failing then you're on a winner aren't you ?? So the stakes are pretty high. Good luck !! ;)

Judging from the replies and the links maybe the smoke might have a bit more fire in it.

It wouldn't be like the Garbo's xmas cheer like dad used to leave out years ago when they ran beside the truck with the smaller trash cans and he left them a bottle of beer.

Maybe the results are for the Jockey's cheer at festive time? No, perish the thought, why do I think these things.

Star

Now here's a little story
To tell it is a must
About an unsung hero
That moves away your dust.

Some people make a fortune,
Others earn a mint;
My old man don't earn much:
In fact he's flippin' skint.

Oh, my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.
He looks a proper nana
In his great big hobnail boots,
He's got such a job to pull them up
That he calls 'em daisy roots.

Some folks give tips at Christmas,
And some of them forget,
So when he picks their bins up
He spills some on the step.
Now one old man got nasty
And to the council wrote,
Next time my old man went round there
He punched him up the throat.

Oh my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, Les.
Les: Yes?
Lonnie: I, er, I found a police dog in my dustbin.
Les: Well how do you do know he's a police dog?
Lonnie: He had a policeman with him.

Though my old man's a dustman,
He's got an 'eart of gold,
He got married recently
Though he's eighty-six years old.
We said "'Ere, hang on, Dad,
You're getting past your prime";
He said "Well, when you get to my age
It helps to pass the time."

Oi! My old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, I say!
Les: Huh?
Lonnie: My dustbin's full of lilies.
Les: Well throw 'em away then!
Lonnie: I can't: Lily's wearing them.

Now one day whilst in a hurry,
He missed a lady's bin:
He hadn't gone but a few yards
When she chased after him.
"What game do you think you're playing?"
She cried right from the 'eart,
"You've missed me, am I too late?"
"No, jump up on the cart!"

Oi! My old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.

Lonnie: I say, I say, I say!
Les: Not you again!
Lonnie: My dustbin's absolutely full with toadstools.
Les: How do you know it's full?
Lonnie: 'Cos there's not mushroom inside.

He found a tiger's head one day
Nailed to a piece of wood
The tiger looked like miserable,
But I suppose he should.
Just then from out a window
A voice began to wail,
It said "Oi! Where's me tiger's head?"
"Four foot from his tail."

Oh my old man's a dustman,
He wears a dustman's hat,
He wears cor-blimey trousers
And he lives in a council flat.
Next time you see a dustman
Looking all pale and sad,
Don't kick him in the dustbin:
It might be my old dad.

Thanks for that Barny.

Some of my stuff is researched even if it only comes from the dust bin.

Star

Star
You'd be surprised at the number of discarded ideas coming good in the hands of a man of vision and imagination.

Never give up!

Completely of topic but think of the money made by picking up stuff on the nature strip? Some legally and also illegally.

Someone thought it was useless, no?

that is just plain old fashioned stats fro you.
i have seen systems work for 3 years straight with everything consistent and perfect then they stumble and fall away and NEVER return.

the 3 years was just a fluke.
long fluke but a fluke

the "holy grail" for me is defined as approx.
1. 1200 selections per month and
2. 10% POT
3. manageable work load

nearly there on 1 and 2 - this year will be the test.

cheers

Aussie, just for clarification. In your previous post you say you have seen systems run for three years and collapse because they were a fluke , a long fluke.

And here you have described what the HG is to you. With 1200 selections per month are they computer generated system bets or do they have human modification before the bet is made.

Just curious.

Star

computer generated.

i bet everyday - around 25k per week - so I can lose a bit fairly quickly when things goes off the rails - whenever i have my run of outs - I think "will this be it - is this the start of the demise"
I was down 9k for January alone - but got it all back today.
tomorrow ? who knows?


so far - so good.

Thanks for the reply. May the Gods be with you.

Star