Query for Chrome Prince
 

G'day Chrome, I have something which I need stats on. You're a great help to everyone who asks, I for one appreciate you taking the time to query our crappy little systems. Thanks very much for doing that all the time.

This one I am thinking of is to find LAY horses. Four categories, could you tell me the number of selns and LOT for them?



They are -

1 - Last start winners, not resuming from a spell.
2 - Horses who have won their last two runs, not resuming.
3 - Horses who have won their last three runs, not resuming.
4 - Last start winners who have won another one in their last four, not resuming.

Thanks.

Duritz

Hi Duritz,

I've received more than my share of help over the years from many generous forum members, so I'm more than happy to return what I can to the "community" providing I have the tools to do it.

1 - Last start winners, not resuming from a spell.
Selections 30,471
Strike Rate 14.28%
Loss On Turnover -16.77%

2 - Horses who have won their last two runs, not resuming.
Selections 6,549
Strike Rate 17.77%
Loss On Turnover -21.04%

3 - Horses who have won their last three runs, not resuming.
Selections 1,560
Strike Rate 21.47%
Loss On Turnover -15.90%

4 - Last start winners who have won another one in their last four, not resuming.

A little hard for me given my DB format, might have to get back to you on that one.

Sweet thanks for that. 21% LOT for those who've won their last two. Interesting.

Thanks again Chrome. Don't worry about category four, that's not a worry.

Duritz.

Some pretty decent LOT's there Duritz. I think I'm thinking what you're thinking. Now where's yesterday's form guide.

Warwick Farm Race 8 11 Never Sad -
Morphettville Race 7 3 Rather Grand -
Morphettville Race 6 1 Lord Braemar -
Morphettville Race 3 8 Royal Image $5.10
Morphettville Race 3 4 Kelmark -
Morphettville Race 2 5 Kelcezza -
Morphettville Race 2 2 Telite -
Moonee Valley Race 6 2 Super Elegant -
Moonee Valley Race 5 4 Renewable -
Moonee Valley Race 5 1 Lieutenant $1.70
Eagle Farm Race 8 6 Semagic -
Eagle Farm Race 2 1 Son Of Dane -
Eagle Farm Race 1 3 Picabelle -
Belmont Race 7 8 Hecatomb -
Belmont Race 6 2 Salisbury Street $4.00
Belmont Race 2 1 Bon Argent -

Bets 16
Return $10.80
Loss 5.20
32.50% LOT (ching ching)

Let's say to get matched, you had to offer 10% better than TAB prices, then the LOT is still 25.75% or (POT). :)

Just one query. Duritz asked for horses with 2 or 3 wins in a row, but are all of the wins after a spell? For instance, does the form have to be 2x11 or 3111 or something or is form like 41x1 or 11x1 counted?

After looking at the last couple of Saturdays results, I think one thing you might want to look at is deleting races with more than one qualifier.

Sportz as long as they're not resuming, it doesn't matter if the wins cross over preps. The theory's the same - the mugs in the TAB see two ones next to the name, they back it. If it's first up though, they can be turned off, esp. if the wins were a longer distance. The mugs do pick that bit up.

There's one selection in SOuth Africa tonight, R6 #6. I might lay it for something small if I'm still up then...

Just had a look back at Feb 5. You wouldn't have done too well that day. A few real shorties with two straight wins got up.

OK. Any further research is appreciated. I don't keep back guides. Of course some will win, but if they're real shorties then it's not too bad.

Yeah but longterm the LOT is 20.34% for last start winners within 45 days who also won their second last start. I'm sure this could be improved with further filters to lay the selections.

If the LOT is 20%, and you offered 10% more than the tote, what would the new LOT be?

10%

Ah ok so it is like that.

By 10% better than tote I assume you mean say the horse is $4.00, you offer $4.40? If it were 10% better expressed as their ACTUAL percentage, then 10% more than $4.00 (which is 25%) would be $6.50 (which is 15%). Couldn't do that, b/c the odds offered would be too long. Like if a horse was $9.00 (11%) you'd have to offer 100/1 (1%).

No you'd only offer up to $4.40 on a $4.00 shot, but would not have to offer 10% in every case. So your profit would be better than estimated.

Some, though, you may have to offer more than the 10%. I have backed horses on BFair far more than 10% above the tote.

I guess an alternative is not to attempt to lay them, but instead (assuming they are under a price of say $5.0) to back the top three or four market chances around them, basically eliminating the roughies. That'll prob. be a better way long term, don't you think?

A loss of 20% on turnover means that your total dividends represent 80 cents in the dollar, so increasing the average dividend by 10% means that your new total dividends represent 88 cents in the dollar. Therefore your new LOT is 12% of turnover.

Cheers,
QFB

QFB,

How can that be, if my LOT is 20%, and suddenly the TAB takeout rises by another 10%, then my LOT is 30% not 22%.

Hi Chrome,

If by saying the TAB takeout rises by another 10% in your NEW example, you mean that the dividends paid out reduce by 10% (and these are NOT the same thing), then a 10% reduction in dividend payot for a punter experiencing a 20% LOT would have the effect of that punter experiencing a new LOT of 28%.

An illustration:
CURRENT OUT $100
CURRENT DIVS $80
CURRENT LOT 20%

becomes:
NEW OUT $100 (Same)
NEW DIVS $72 ($80 - 10% = $80 - $8)
NEW LOT 28%

That's the way I view it anyway.

Cheers again,
QFB

Just to confuse it further, 10% added on to a $4 shot is $4.30, not $4.40.
The horse is 3/1, add .3/1 (10%) gives you 3.3/1 or $4.30.

Pretty academic as I've managed to lay horses on Betfair less than tote price & also more than 10% longer than bookies best price.

QFB is right. I was going to post something to that effect exactly. I did the maths in my head while showering this morning LOL.

Also, Mark, you're right about the 10%, but it doesn't matter much, just trying to work out how high you'd have to lay them above tote before risking actual long term profit.

Can anyone post what selections there are today?

BTW that one in South Africa ran second, I wasn't up though by then...

Duritz

Perhaps my terminology is at fault, I didn't mean increase by 10% of an existing 10%. I meant increase from 10% to 20%.

Well, anyway, it's all splitting hairs I reckon! Truth is, if you lay them and they win, you lose!!

Two selections who have won their last two today, they are

Albury 6-4
Townsville 2-1

May their legs be slow, and their hearts tired.

counting your cash duritz? :)

Didn't bother with the Albury one (longer than $5.0, I don't like laying roughies....) however I had a good look at the Townsville race and I decided rather than lay the #1, I thought the eventual winner was going to be very, very hard to beat, so I had a good go at it!

I'll post tomorrow's "lays" at some point.

OK there's a few of these lays today, here they are

Ipswich
8-1

Mornington
9-2,8,9

Mowbray
3-2
4-3
6-4
8-3

Morph
6-3
7-6

Rosehill
3-6
6-10
7-4

May their legs be slow, and their hearts be tired. (worked yesterday!)