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-   -   Calling Raven (http://forums.ozmium.com.au/showthread.php?t=20807)

lomaca 13th December 2010 04:56 PM

Calling Raven
 
Hi Raven,

Not sure I'm allowed to pursue this, but you put it up on a public thread, so lets see how we go?


What do you do when more than one selection in a race?
It happens!

Strictly according to the rules re position on the turn and also on previous runs, I excluded the races where this info was not available, which is most prov. races and some met races as well.

Where it was available, and complied with your specs. it performed exactly 100% worth than when ignored. Ie. half the return.

Works only on met. races, mostly on Saturdays, (that's where I looked first) but this year it was treading water on Saturdays until November and then it picked up really well in the last 6 weeks, so much so that it was in profit for the year.

Unfortunately before that, there were outs of up to 28.
this is only preliminary because I didn't know what you do with multiple selections.

Most of the profit came from odds over $5.00 to $ 15.00 although some shorties came in as well.

Good luck with it.
Cheers

Raven 13th December 2010 06:53 PM

Thanks lomaca,

Im surprised to hear it was treading water early this year. But, in particular the freshen up horses, have had a few losing years when i was researching this, so it does happen. But overall the performance was solid. It always bounces back after a bad year too.

If there are 2 selections in a race, i'd back both. If they were 1st & 2nd faves i'd probably leave the race alone though. If we were unlucky to have 3, i'd back the 2 roughest. I generally dont bet below $4 so Im more inclined to back the longer priced selections. This is just a simple system afterall, and Id magine the profit is in the higher priced selections long term. I also think we can get better overs on Betfair when the prices are longer.

And yes the last 2 months have been good. It continued on Sat, 2 winners from 3 bets.

I will admit that i've chopped and changed the rules as i've reasearched this through the year. Its in profit for the year all up. The rules i have now are quick and simple to go through, which is part of the deal.

For the record, I'm only having 0.5% bets for the win only

lomaca 13th December 2010 07:09 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Raven
Thanks lomaca,

Im surprised to hear it was treading water early this year. But, in particular the freshen up horses, have had a few losing years when i was researching this, so it does happen. But overall the performance was solid. It always bounces back after a bad year too.

If there are 2 selections in a race, i'd back both. If they were 1st & 2nd faves i'd probably leave the race alone though. If we were unlucky to have 3, i'd back the 2 roughest. I generally dont bet below $4 so Im more inclined to back the longer priced selections. This is just a simple system afterall, and Id magine the profit is in the higher priced selections long term. I also think we can get better overs on Betfair when the prices are longer.

And yes the last 2 months have been good. It continued on Sat, 2 winners from 3 bets.

I will admit that i've chopped and changed the rules as i've reasearched this through the year. Its in profit for the year all up. The rules i have now are quick and simple to go through, which is part of the deal.

For the record, I'm only having 0.5% bets for the win only
For simplicities sake I took the days to last start as 70 which covers both, resumers and all, not hard to do in the way you specified either.

The fact that you pick your winners from the qualifiers, and also that you bet on more than one, explains your better result.

I just picked the highest TAB number, but I saw many times that the other selection actually won, so that's where the difference lies.

I found it better for the win than the place, overall not a bad little system, the simpler the better I say.

Have fun with it and good luck.

lomaca 14th December 2010 04:28 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
For simplicities' sake I took the days to last start as 70 which covers both, resumers and all, not hard to do in the way you specified either.
Yes, what a difference a day makes as they say!

Good luck

lomaca 14th December 2010 06:52 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Yes, what a difference a day makes as they say!

Good luck
I hope it's not too cryptic?
I meant to say following your rules made a hack of a difference in the positive!

Good luck

lomaca 15th December 2010 12:27 PM

Caulfield race 2 No 10 Bellabaci and No 8 Olympic Win

Good luck

lomaca 15th December 2010 12:47 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Caulfield race 2 No 10 Bellabaci and No 8 Olympic Win

Good luck
Randwick race 7 No 9 Bullant

lomaca 15th December 2010 01:46 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Randwick race 7 No 9 Bullant
PS
in the Cau, race only Olympic Win qualified with the <= 4 at the turn for the last and at least one other of the last 2 previous races, although I found the POT much worse if taken into consideration anyway.

The third place getter 9-TWIGINTHEDESERT qualified in all but the days to last start and paid $4.80 for the place.
'--------------------------------------------------
The runner in race 7 at RAN is qualifying in all respect according to Raven's rules.

Good luck.

lomaca 15th December 2010 02:18 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
PS
in the Cau, race only Olympic Win qualified with the <= 4 at the turn for the last and at least one other of the last 2 previous races, although I found the POT much worse if taken into consideration anyway.

The third place getter 9-TWIGINTHEDESERT qualified in all but the days to last start and paid $4.80 for the place.
'--------------------------------------------------
The runner in race 7 at RAN is qualifying in all respect according to Raven's rules.

Good luck.
Hi Raven,
it's your system, if you don't want me to post the selections just holler!

I thought I post it for a few weeks when I have time, but it's your call.

Good luck

lomaca 15th December 2010 03:55 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by lomaca
Randwick race 7 No 9 Bullant
Incidentally my own rating for this race is:

5,6,4,3
Finished betting but will watch!

Good luck


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