Duritz,

You are simply looking at the horses' overall records, whereas my ratings are a combination of things:
(a) My personal opinion of the ability of the horse,
(b) It's previous record,
(c) It's current record,
(d) It's ability to win it's upcoming race.

If I simply rated them on their overall records, I would probably agree with most of your examples of 'errors', but I don't. For example, 75% of horses on the list are currently spelling, so their next run will be their first-up run, and a fair part of the rating is based on how I expect them to go in their next run.

So, I'll go through your examples:

Lad Of The Manor is a top horse, but more importantly, he's a terrific first-up & second-up horse, so I've basically given him a bonus for that. (2 other good examples are Red Oog and Confectioner, both terrific first-up horses. I've rated them both about 2-3 kgs higher than I'd rate them later in their campaigns.) So that's why I have Lad Of The Manor rated so highly. I agree Lotteria could possibly be rated slightly higher than she is though, because she also has a 100% first-up record. I may reassess her rating when it comes time for her first-up start.

Xcellent's rating is based on dry tracks (if it's a wet track, he simply won't qualify) and also races over middle distances to staying events. He is unlikely to race in Australia early in his campaign anyway (if at all), so he won't be racing against horses like Takeover Target, Spark Of Life etc.

The same applies to Leica Falcon. His rating is based on how I think he'll go in longer races. He simply won't be racing against the top sprinters you mentioned as he only qualifies from 1400 on. I think he'll have a terrific year and be highly competitive in anything from 1400-3200. Railings, by comparison, needs 1600m and he doesn't go well first-up, so that's why I've rated him inferior at this stage. He DOES however have a terrific 2nd-up record, so when it comes time for his 2nd-up run, I will probably raise his rating.

A similar story with Desert War. 4 previous first-up runs for just 2 thirds. And he's never won at less than 1600m. That's why I've rated him about 2-3 kgs lower than I would have him later in his campaign. Meanwhile, Sir Dex has quite a good first-up record and has won at shorter distances, so I think it's reasonable to have him rated ahead of Desert War, based on how they should go at their next runs.

Zipping's high rating is just my personal opinion. On his previous record, he probably only deserves to be rated at 53(111), but I just think he's highly promising. The same applies to a few other up and coming horses which I've rated higher than you might expect. (ie. Leica Falcon)

Hope that explains everything. I'm reasonably confident with how I've rated the top horses. At the moment, I think my biggest mistake has been being too lenient and including too many horses with insufficient class. But I think things will improve when the quality of the racing increases.