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Originally Posted by KennyVictor
Why would I sell a winning system?
......and why would anyone want to buy it?
The system seller isn't going to be selling the one copy to me is he. He will be flogging it to anyone who will give him their money. Pretty soon we'll have scores of punters putting their money on the same horse that my system is picking. The 10% will drift down to 5% as the price on my horses drop. Then the profit will dissappear altogether as I tell my friends about this fabulous system and half the country is backing the same horse that I am. Only one guy is coming out on top here. The joker selling the 'winning' system.
An overly simplistic view I agree. But I'll be interested to hear other people's views on this largely unanswered question.
KV
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1. I think there is a common misnomer there - that anyone who has a racing product to sell will make a fortune selling it. That is usually not the case. The thousands of punters you envisage all backing the same horse just does not happen.
2. Any betting method has losing runs. How many punters will stop as soon as a method starts losing? Particularly if it is just after they have started.
3. How many punters will bet with poor discipline:
a) Bet sizes raised dramatically after a few wins - get a few losing bets and instead of being in profits there are losses. Don't then blame themselves - it's the information that is "no good."
b) How many punters bet up to "get out" on a losing day?
c) How many punters will see a selection at big odds and not back it? Why? Because "it can't win." I remember the case of one of our racing members a number of years ago who was complaining that the top selections did not win. I asked him if he backed a horse, forgotten the name now, that won a few weeks earlier. He said "I missed that one." It only won at around $30.00!
d) How many punters will see a selection ease and not back it - only to watch it win?
e) How many punters will see another horse other than the selection firm so follow the money and back it instead?