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#1
8th January 2006, 06:43 PM
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Why Sell a System?
Why would I sell a winning system?
......and why would anyone want to buy it? This is a question I've seen asked a few times, usually as a retorical question, but never satisfactorily answered. Someone doing an undercover promotion job did answer it a few months back along the lines of "Well a dentist sells his services to people by fixing their teeth so a professional horse rater sells his services by tipping horses". I thought at the time this was a rather unsatisfactory answer because a dentist can't turn his work directly into money like a punter can. So, let's assume I have a successful system. Would I sell it? Well, yes, I would. I'm convinced, after reading about various people either being taken to the tune of many thousands of dollars or asking if they should hand over a large wad for a system, that there is a lot more SAFE money to be made selling systems than using them. If you have a system that is consistently turning 10% Profit on turnover you have a very saleable product which I'm sure a lot of unsuccessful punters would love to have. But to use it yourself - well, you've got to worry about things like long losing streaks, how much of my bank can I afford to bet with, will the system stay successful long enough to make me a fortune. No, I'm sure a lot more stress free dollars are available by selling a good system than by using it. So, maybe some of these systems on the market are genuine winning systems. Now, from the other side of the fence, would I like to buy a successful system. Well, if I was a severely unsuccessful punter, doing my dough week after week I might indeed think it was a good idea to buy a system. Chances are I'd get ripped off because I'm sure the bogus systems out there far outnumber the genuine ones, but let's say I found a successful one. One that had turned the 10% profit over the last few years. Would this be a wise buy? I don't think so. The system seller isn't going to be selling the one copy to me is he. He will be flogging it to anyone who will give him their money. Pretty soon we'll have scores of punters putting their money on the same horse that my system is picking. The 10% will drift down to 5% as the price on my horses drop. Then the profit will dissappear altogether as I tell my friends about this fabulous system and half the country is backing the same horse that I am. Only one guy is coming out on top here. The joker selling the 'winning' system. An overly simplistic view I agree. But I'll be interested to hear other people's views on this largely unanswered question. KV 
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#3
8th January 2006, 07:29 PM
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Very few punters will stick with a winning system, after it experiences a losing run. Lack of discipline brings a lot of punters undone.
This is why dividends are NOT affected in the longrun. Usually as a system is released or popular the dividends "crunch" in a little, but months later they are just as they were - and this is not because it doesn't work, it's because the majority of punters have gone on to the next "big" thing.
__________________
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#4
8th January 2006, 09:00 PM
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Quote:
Now you tell me! CP where were you ten years ago when I was stupid enough to buy them but needed advice? So all those systems sold over the years as winning propositions (and I was losing using them for months and months, hoping the losing runs will end) are still out there, making money? Or are you saying I happened to have picked the losing ones??? Last edited by lomaca : 8th January 2006 at 09:12 PM.
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#6
9th January 2006, 06:16 AM
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I always have had the: 'write a winning system on the footpath outside of Ranwick and it wont affect prices' philosophy [in the long run].
So I'd agree with Chrome [hi Chrome, I needed a holiday and I don't get into grudges, so lets nip this in the bud with no hard feeling I hope?]. System buyers never stop at one system, they buy another, then another at the first run of outs or when it goes completely pear shaped.. If you were putting successful tips on a forum similar results would happen. As soon as you hit a bad patch of outs the money following you would become very cautious [small bet or no bet for most]. No tipster avoids outs. Long term success though would be a different story, but you could probably swing a deal with the forum owners and punters would have to pay to look.
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#7
9th January 2006, 08:19 AM
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Ever see a bunch of really little kids playing soccer ????
They call it "magnetball".Wherever the ball is,so are the kids. A lot of punters are like that. Cheers,, Bill..
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#8
9th January 2006, 08:36 AM
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Quote:
Iomaca, No I'm not saying either. There are very few systems which win overall, but the ones that do always have a run of outs. Most punters jump ship when the going gets tough, because they have had numerous experiences like yourself, where the "good" system died an inevitable death.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#9
9th January 2006, 08:40 AM
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Quote:
Hi crash, I agree about the Randwick idea. The weight of money for other horses will invariably even out the divvies unless it's a huge go on a system in a purple patch. Great to see you back posting mate.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 412,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/12/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#10
10th January 2006, 10:44 AM
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Quote:
2. Any betting method has losing runs. How many punters will stop as soon as a method starts losing? Particularly if it is just after they have started. 3. How many punters will bet with poor discipline: a) Bet sizes raised dramatically after a few wins - get a few losing bets and instead of being in profits there are losses. Don't then blame themselves - it's the information that is "no good." b) How many punters bet up to "get out" on a losing day? c) How many punters will see a selection at big odds and not back it? Why? Because "it can't win." I remember the case of one of our racing members a number of years ago who was complaining that the top selections did not win. I asked him if he backed a horse, forgotten the name now, that won a few weeks earlier. He said "I missed that one." It only won at around $30.00! d) How many punters will see a selection ease and not back it - only to watch it win? e) How many punters will see another horse other than the selection firm so follow the money and back it instead?
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