
3rd February 2006, 05:02 PM
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Suspended.
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: gippsland lakes/vic
Posts: 5,104
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ODDS-ON LOOK ON
Well here were we go with this one. Anything expressed here is IMHO only and is no more relevant than anyone else's IMHO:
I try to abide by this rule 'odds-on, look on' most of the time. I sometimes get caught out because I have to put my bet on early or it is a race with few runners and I might go down to even $1.50 SP if I see no competition. Why do I mainly abide by this rule? 'Value, value, value', being subjective, must be arrived at in some way. You can take other people's opinion, or you can do you own price-line.
I do my own price-line. I never read 'tips' or opinion about any horse or race in the press or on listen to racing radio. I am a pure handicapper basing everything on past facts, Stewart's reports, trainer standing, jockey standing, horse history etc. Any 'opinion' colours mine. I avoid that completely.
If my selection happens to start at $10 to $20 SP [extreme example], I just raise my bet!!
How good do you think you are at doing a price-line, for a 5 to 8 horse race, for an 8 to 14 horse race [or more] to find what you consider a fair price or overlay?
How about a stakes, cups or group race ?
At what point do you say 'Odds-on, look on' ?
Or, do you follow the 'any price a winner' philosophy?
Cheers,
Crash
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