Well here were we go with this one. Anything expressed here is IMHO only and is no more relevant than anyone else's IMHO:

I try to abide by this rule 'odds-on, look on' most of the time. I sometimes get caught out because I have to put my bet on early or it is a race with few runners and I might go down to even $1.50 SP if I see no competition. Why do I mainly abide by this rule? 'Value, value, value', being subjective, must be arrived at in some way. You can take other people's opinion, or you can do you own price-line.

I do my own price-line. I never read 'tips' or opinion about any horse or race in the press or on listen to racing radio. I am a pure handicapper basing everything on past facts, Stewart's reports, trainer standing, jockey standing, horse history etc. Any 'opinion' colours mine. I avoid that completely.
If my selection happens to start at $10 to $20 SP [extreme example], I just raise my bet!!

How good do you think you are at doing a price-line, for a 5 to 8 horse race, for an 8 to 14 horse race [or more] to find what you consider a fair price or overlay?

How about a stakes, cups or group race ?

At what point do you say 'Odds-on, look on' ?

Or, do you follow the 'any price a winner' philosophy?

Cheers,
Crash

Personally I don't differentiate according to offered price. By that I mean I frame a market to 70% and if the price offered is above mine I'll take the bet. Just means I have to rate the horse well above the rest of the field to take odds on.

KV

[QUOTE=KennyVictor..... Just means I have to rate the horse well above the rest of the field to take odds on. KV[/QUOTE]

Regardless of field size? A 19 horse Quality at Doomben?

Crash, in theory you are right regarding overlay betting. If you can frame a race accurately then in the long term you should come out on top. Not so much on any given day, but in the long term yes. The only problem I have with it is that if you dont rate every race every day, how do know that the races you dont get a chance to bet on for any reason, aren't the ones that you would get many of your winners from. For example for all the horses you rate as say a 3/1 chances that are offered at say 5/1 , many of those selections that you do bet on may lose and the races you dont rate may be the ones where many of them get up. I don't know if I've explained what I'm getting at clearly enough but hopefully I have, and would be interested in your opinion . For example a crisis may occur that keeps you off the punt for say 2 or 3 weeks. You keep the formguides and rate the races after you come back and find out that you have missed many of the value winners that would put you in front for the year. Unless your winners fall into a very consistent pattern then lady luck could play a major part in your success or failure depending on what happens during the races you miss.

When I go with a particular method i think might have merit, i never look at the resullts of the races I couldnt bet on for fear that i missed my best winners.

Dr Ron!
An excellent point that, many people (not all) on this forum overlook.
They bet on certain races only, but when looking up past results for guidance, they look at ALL races. Big mistake.
I must qualify, that it applies mostly to people who ask others to look up results for them, without giving sufficient details.
Cheers

If I rate a horse at $1.49 in my 70% market and it's paying $1.50 I'll take it. But how often in a 19 horse quality at Doomben do you rate a horse so far superior it is a $1.49 chance (in a 70% market not the 114% or whatever that the bookie offers)? I believe if I rate a horse that much better than the rest of the field it has a good chance of winning so I'll believe what my computer tells me and have a bet.

KV

I'd agree with that Kenny. Your on the right road that suits your style as far as I'm concerned. A bit different to mine. but mine is one of many. There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Cheers.

Doc,

Simple. I don't. Nor do I care. There are enough races to select from to bet in to keep me happy. If I miss something that after the event, would have been better, big deal. Another day starts tomorrow.

Lets take today [SAT.] Here are my betable races that should offer me betable fair odds on my selections with only a few possible winners and not 6 [or more] possible winners. You will notice that none of them are stakes or group races: Welters and Qualities class is as fare as my serious money ever gets bet. That's my punting style and other punters have maybe the same or their own approach that works for them.

Melb. R4 and R8. Doomben R5 and R7 Morphettville R6. That's it. The big races and a couple of others I'll have fun bets in. What I miss doesn't worry me, I concentrate on what I think I can nail now and don't worry about what I 'might' have nailed from results. If I can't get my fair price for my selection, I ignore the race. I don't look for another to bet on. Tomorrow starts tomorrow.

Must be the silly season, I completely agree with what Crash says here :-).
I look at all the results on days that I don't bet, I cuss when I miss a winner and it used to annoy me but I found I was smiling just as often when I would have had a losing day. Unless you're betting longshots (and miss out on that $200 winner on your day off) it shouldn't take long before things even out.

KV

We better be careful Kenny, we'll be sending each other chocolates soon. 8-)