Crash, in theory you are right regarding overlay betting. If you can frame a race accurately then in the long term you should come out on top. Not so much on any given day, but in the long term yes. The only problem I have with it is that if you dont rate every race every day, how do know that the races you dont get a chance to bet on for any reason, aren't the ones that you would get many of your winners from. For example for all the horses you rate as say a 3/1 chances that are offered at say 5/1 , many of those selections that you do bet on may lose and the races you dont rate may be the ones where many of them get up. I don't know if I've explained what I'm getting at clearly enough but hopefully I have, and would be interested in your opinion . For example a crisis may occur that keeps you off the punt for say 2 or 3 weeks. You keep the formguides and rate the races after you come back and find out that you have missed many of the value winners that would put you in front for the year. Unless your winners fall into a very consistent pattern then lady luck could play a major part in your success or failure depending on what happens during the races you miss.

When I go with a particular method i think might have merit, i never look at the resullts of the races I couldnt bet on for fear that i missed my best winners.