It is probably a combination of the surface and injury.

Baghdatis retired hurt with a back injury in his last match, which was about a month ago. He also hasn't had very good results in recent times on clay.

Rochus on the other hand won the Munich clay tournament last week, so that would be another reason he would be favourite.

I wont be touching the match though as I usually fade guys coming off wins from the week before as outside of the top few players they usually can't back it up for two weeks in a row.

Hope that helps,

Sparks