KV,

Spectacular as your figures are you probably would not be able to survive solely on Trifectas. But could well make a killing in other ways.

Obviously due to limited disclosure I'm making some guesses in the following calculations.

If you bet a $1 Trifecta on all ~16,000 races per year then you would expect nearly $5,000 profit which is obviously not enough.

But if you took $20 trifectae in the hope of self sustainability then you run into problems.

A significant number of those races have pools below $20,000 and they often would not be able to cope with an extra $20 on the winner.

Your figures presumably include some anomalous collects in the $5,000 region and it is those which make or break you. Notably if you miss out on just 1 of those in a year you make bupkiss.

But even $1 in a $20,000 net pool reduces a $5,000 collect by ~25%.

It would be interesting to calculate just how much you could invest without eroding your returns, but right now time does not permit me.


I expect to make a few more mathematical comments later when I'm able.