You have to wonder about the mentality of those who patronise Trifectas with 21% rakes.

However the June fire sale with 10.5% rakes for NSW TAB Trifectas commences in a few hours.

So any sane punters out there should consider betting Trifectas (and nothing else) there - while it lasts.

For some strange reason there is very little publicity about this. Could this guarded secrecy have something to do with a non-level playing field? Tilted towards those Crash believes are on a different planet? Check the Betfair Australian Forum thread titled Jackpots for opinions on this.

http://www.thoroughbrednews.co.nz/australia/?id=24051

A 21% rake is mild compared to what most oncourse bookies charge so maybe it's not so dumb after all especially when you consider that there is excellent value to be found in trifectas and exactas

there is so much dumb money in the exotics pools that it is very easy to overcome the rake. there are a number of punters who hang out on ausrace who "rake" the exotics pools daily and i manage to make a good deal more from the exotics than i do from the win bets

like the old saying goes "value is in the eye of the beholder"

R.Gort

Considering the bogus posts and posters show no sign of abating, perhaps you might care to establish your bona fides by disclosing the handle you use elsewhere?

You present yourself as quite an authority so surely these are not your debut posts?

Once the matter of your authencity is settled then I'm prepared to challenge your claims.

Leaving aside the authenticity of the poster for now, let's examine the content, which does not improve with further viewings.

Despite having read pertinent Forums extensively I have yet to come across a credible account of anyone currently profiting well from Australian Trifectas on galloping at the official 21% rake.

Certainly I'll be very happy for anyone to step forward and enlighten me.

Programs to automatically predict and wager Exotics have been publicly available over a decade ago. The dumb money gets well and truly swamped by the leviathan money. Consequently the apparent Overs routinely get crushed in to negative expectations.

Anyone skilfull enough to play Trifectas should also be smart enough to ignore them and instead play whatever has the lowest rakes.

I'm not going to say I'm that elusive guy who makes money on the trifectas but I have some interesting results in that direction and an opinion rather than an explanation as to why that may be.
I have a computerised rating system that makes it's own ratings from past results and returns the field of each race in order of merit. It's certainly not backfitted as it's been constructed on a limited period of results from one state only and works pretty consistently across all states results. It's not (intentionally) slanted towards exotics either as no consideration of them was made when the ratings system was created.
If (as it runs through 10 years of past results) it makes a bet on every predicted winner of every race it comes out about even, so it just overcomes the rake on the NSW win pool. If it makes a bet on every exacta it comes out about 20% ahead and if it makes a bet on every trifecta it comes out about 30% ahead. This indicates to me that with the same level of skill in picking a horse's merits it is possible to do better on the exotics than the win pool. Having said that let me say this, the runs of outs and drawdowns are truely scarey and although it always seems to recover any lost ground (eventually) I don't actually bet them purely because I haven't got the nerve.
Now why this is so I'm not entirely sure, and you jfc would probably have more of a mathmatical idea than I but I reason along these lines of logic.
The results on the win bets indicate that the ratings are better than the average punter (including mug money, wise money, bots, droids, whatever.) by an amount roughly equal to the win rake (what's that? 14%?). When you are betting trifectas does this mean you are better than the average by (1.14 x 1.14 x 1.14) because you are making three selections and using your skill level three times? If this is so that would make you almost 1.5 times better than the masses. The maths would doubtless be more complex but this simplistic view will do to get the idea across. Now if this is true and the rake is 21% this would come close to explaining why the figures give me a 30% lead over the TAB on trifectas.
KV

KV,

Spectacular as your figures are you probably would not be able to survive solely on Trifectas. But could well make a killing in other ways.

Obviously due to limited disclosure I'm making some guesses in the following calculations.

If you bet a $1 Trifecta on all ~16,000 races per year then you would expect nearly $5,000 profit which is obviously not enough.

But if you took $20 trifectae in the hope of self sustainability then you run into problems.

A significant number of those races have pools below $20,000 and they often would not be able to cope with an extra $20 on the winner.

Your figures presumably include some anomalous collects in the $5,000 region and it is those which make or break you. Notably if you miss out on just 1 of those in a year you make bupkiss.

But even $1 in a $20,000 net pool reduces a $5,000 collect by ~25%.

It would be interesting to calculate just how much you could invest without eroding your returns, but right now time does not permit me.


I expect to make a few more mathematical comments later when I'm able.

Like most ratings systems it picks shortish priced horses in the main so the size of the divvies are not as high as you may think. Just looking at races in NSW it comes up with 33000 trifecta bets and picks 758 winners. At a dollar a bet it returns a bit over 10,000 profit and the higest payout is $2028, next highest is $954. Only 8 are above $500.
KV

Mr JFC
please tell me which TAB actually provides a feed of Trifecta approximates? there is no way to predict "overs" as you call them without having current approximates so therefore there is no way that I know of for the "leviathan money" to swamp the apparent overs - yes there are many programs which bet trifectas based on calculated approximates but these calculated approximates are not very accurate im afraid
however i am prepared to be proven wrong and perhaps there is a tote and there are programs which display current approximates


im quite happy to remain dumb and take my 140% ROI

you seem to disbelieve that it is possible to make money on the trifectas - so be it. i have made a statement of fact here and whether you [or anyone else on this forum for that matter] believes me matters squat - just because you can't imagine it does not make it impossible.

R.Gort

There is money in Trifecta betting if one has the software to apply the maths.

It doesn't matter to me what percentage they take out or leave in (within reason, a variation of 10% is diddly).

Why?

Because I'm not betting against them, I'm betting against other punters.

All I need is a dividend which, when multiplied by the strike rate is greater than 100.

Simple.

To find that occurrence is the challenge, but exotics are the easiest way to make a profit - full stop. The very fact that the approximates are unknown (to most) is why it is so easy.

Just a small amount of research turns odds on horses in 5/1 shots (I've posted re this some time ago).

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