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Originally Posted by AssumeTheCrown
Thanks for your reply jfc.
You seem to be on the same wavelength as me to a certain extent.
I consider my first four model to be a very good one. The fact that i turnover millions of dollars a year on this bet type and have continually beaten the 20-25% rake over time shows how good my model is. And no i dont use Bayes Theorem of using win probabilities to predict the placings. I have sufficient evidence to disprove this. The superfecta before the abolished it was my biggest winner. The takeout there was 25% and my POT was huge thanks to a couple of sweeps of the pool. A few times a multiple jackpot would occur and in a big field it was quite easy to hold the only live ticket.
At the end of the day a 20% rake is definitely easy to overcome if you are taking all of the "overs" combinations. I have recently started betting in Hong Kong on the six up and Triple Trios and the overlays in some of the combinations there are huge. An example is no 4 being an unlucky Chinese number. If a no 4 wins in any of these bet types the dividends are significantly inflated. Massive pools and huge carry over jackpots mean the dividends pay "overs" quite frequently.
Just because the TAB have such a huge rake doesnt mean that these overlays dont exist. For example the World Cup has plenty of them. I dont know who sets the odds but they stuffed up big time with the quarter final odds. The original market for teams in groups G and H to reach the quarters was 160% when 2 teams MUST qualify from the 8 teams within. A huge arbitrage situation that didnt last long once i took to it. My biggest problem is not finding overlays but getting barred by fixed odds betting agencies. I have hundreds of accounts in different names and still manage to get several a week closed down.
Cheers
ATC
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ATC,
Rest assured I have studied both your posts with extreme empathy, however if we continue much more of this in public some feathers might get ruffled. Recently KV was in high dudgeon when I made an aside to the "nth root" - something everyone should know, so you can imagine what might happen if the discussion strays into Sierpinski carpets or Mexican Hat transforms. Of course you are welcome to contact me off-line at any time assuming you can figure out how.
Anyway I was simply trying to alert people to opportunities in a Trifecta fire sale rather than secrets to mastering all Exotics, and I wasn't trying to pry into anyone's elite methods.
However if you're so inclined can you elaborate in public on what fascinates me on a strictly academic level?
Are you saying that there are corporate bookies with rocks in their head prepared to offer inducements on F4s?
What do they offer considering that NSW is usually the only state fielding F4s?
How do you know they'll pay out when you snare a blinder like the $1/4 million Gold Coast Magic Millions?
Do you yourself have rocks in your head in not knowing the counter measures they can take?
As described elsewhere, rather than ban you they can instead lay off a fraction of your big bet guaranteeing you get an undersized return should you win.
Anyway I'm impressed that you can find 100s of associates you're willing to trust with your money.