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Originally Posted by Sportz
Because he's an old style plodding handicapper. That's not meant as an insult. He's exactly the sort of horse that used to win Cups all the time. It's just that things are different these days. Now, it's usually won by a horse that's at least competitive at WFA and is capable of winning at distances as short as 2000 metres. Besides which, On A Jeune was an outsider last year, and he hasn't won a race since. No doubt some people think it was a fluke.
Personally, I think he has a good chance, but I must say that if you looked just at his record since last year's cup, it's certainly not that great.
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You're quite right Sportz, he is an old style plodder, but just the type that gets cover and is capable of storming down the outside.
I don't really agree with the WFA thing nor the performance angle, as Bart used to say (and still says) it's the miles in the legs.
There's no doubt hisperformance since winning the Cup has been poor, but he's been set for this since last year. His stint earlier this year did not suit at all.
The WFA horses are always touted and very short in the market, I believe this year's Melbourne Cup will be different.
To win a Melbourne Cup a horse has to be fit, have the miles in the legs and be capable of winning at the level and distance.
On a Jeune satisfies all that criteria.
Running 2nd to a horse that won three Melbourne Cups is good enough to take it out.
I'll be going heavily on this one as it seems to be excellent place value at least with the more fancied horses being shorter.
I'll probably also box up On A Jeune with some of the internationals, just not sure which one's yet
