It's well known that longshots are generally better odds on the tote, provided you don't bet too much on them, in which case you won't get the odds you think you will.

Our stats for Melbourne and Sydney metropolitan Saturday racing shows that bookmaker top fluctuation for horses starting at $5.50 or shorter over the long term is substantially better than the tote - admittedly we are using just one tote price.

However more than one third of the time that will be the top tote price. Where a horse has been plunged you will see that the tote bettor often ends up getting below the plunged bookmaker starting price. The TF bettor does substantially better.

Personally I have no intention of losing money by backing well supported tote horses in tote markets of 120%, where I cannot control the minimum odds I receive, compared to bookmaker TF markets which are often below 110% in Sydney on a Saturday.

See:
http://www.propun.com.au/bookmakers...ling_index.html

[ This Message was edited by: Neil on 2003-07-28 10:13 ]