I think only the Gods can workout "true" odds of even money Chrome Prince, without hindsight, as there are just too many variables.You can do it spinning a penny but on a horse race? Think about it.

At your quoted prices, that you would call a good price or overlay, you would need to win 50% of your races just to breath! Any worse and you would be belly up.Your choices would be favorites and they win approx. one in four races.You would have to be able to pick half of them to stay alive. To me thats scary stuff.

There are plenty of races being won by horses between $4 and $7 that are just as easy to spot[often easier] and have as much genuine [not stats] chance of winning a race as your example. Now THEY are overlays! If I can't spot one or two in a race,or I spot more than two, I leave the race alone.Personel judgement [as well as your picks] must also be priced and I know nobody that could put even money on themselves as a tipster.Personaly, I like a bit of leeway on both.Everyone to his own though.Some punters LIKE scaring themselves to death!

My outs don't seem to be any worse than anything I've seen here or from punters I know personaly.As to my point about winners being easers or steady, I'm no stats expert but have read that statement by those that are, both here and in some fine publications that I read.I might be wrong, but someone is sure to turn up here that knows the score. I'd bet on it.What odds?

[ This Message was edited by: crash on 2003-07-29 07:09 ]