Michael

The strength of the method is in the combination of the (let's call them) factors. That's what it all hinges on i.e. the group is smarter than the sum of its parts. When I added more factors accuracy improved only slightly at the expense of quite a bit of action as the price of the selections tended to lengthen. Remember I was primarily looking at this as a lay method. The three I use seem about right but about half of the selections are at uncomfortable lay prices. There's been quite a bit of trial and error.

The Flatstat's page gives some indication as to what type of factors you can look at. You could use average prize money, jockey strike rate, trainer strike rate, saddle numbers, grey horses whatever etc. There are many many combinations. You might even work some of the Neural factors in there.

You don't have to do the substitution part either. You could just back or lay to the percentages you get after you've crunched the numbers. That's been more my approach in the past and it works ok to.

In back testing this is actually looking quite ok on the lay side. At this stage I'll be dropping my present 7% POT lay method in this ones favour. The backing side can go a long time without turning up a winner. It's just unfortunate that the size of the Australian markets don't allow me to share some more. I'm happy to keep this going for a little while longer while we build confidence, as I'm not really putting proper size bets on these yet. Eventually I'll have to close the thread down

Am I sounding too confident? I can see I'm setting myself up for a massive correction this Saturday.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash