I can see your [sound] point Party.

I chose the first 3 races because generally, I think more favorites get up in them than later races. It's well known that races where fav. are most likely to get up are run early to encourage punters to the track so fields are generally smaller etc. That sort of race programing goes way back and is probably a bit silly in today's age but it's still there like a lot of other silly things.

Not all races have a 30% fav. Strike rate. Cups, Listed and Group races as a good example. Ok the odds will be higher for fav. in those races but not high enough to even things out and the fav. SR in those races [and some others] is nowhere near 30%.

Naturally if betting on this method, top fluc. etc. would be the way to go but for comparison purposes rather than best price, I'm just using UNI tab. prices. A small loss over 12mths. could obviously probably be turned into a small profit by chasing best price but the comparison between progression and flat stakes betting is the point here and regardless whether eventual profit or loss [or indeed the type of progression], the flat stakes punter will, either win more or lose less than the progression punter.

Altering the progression type, will only alter the margin of profit or loss difference long term, but never put the progression punter in a better off position than the flat stakes punter.