Thread: advice
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Old 30th October 2008, 07:05 PM
Silver_and_sand Silver_and_sand is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 335
Default G'day Stugots,

How did your selections fair betting for the place?

A couple of quick comments. I'd be a little concerned about the run of outs. Be honest with yourself and consider how long you would be prepared to continue to bet a selection method that had just produced 24 losers in a row. My point is, there's nothing saying your selection method won't have a run of 24 outs, followed by one average priced winner, follwed by another run of 24 outs. For confidence sake, you might find it worthwhile to sacrifice some profit, in return for a better strike rate, thus reducing the length of run of outs, and thereby increasing your confidence in continuing to back your selections while in the midst of a run of outs.

For instance, you mention that your max div was $37.80. That's great, and while I'm sure everyone loves to snag a longshot from time to time, my question would be if you ruled out any selection with a pre-post price of say $16 or higher, would it reduce your run of outs, and increase your overall strike rate? If so, then I feel that such a rule should be something to consider implementing, even if it results in a lower p.o.t.

Conversely, you might also consider ruling out any selections paying less than $3. Given that favourites only win 30% of the time, it seems unlikely your selections paying less than $3 would have contributed very much in terms of p.o.t.

I can't really offer much more advice without knowing more about your selection method. Just work on increasing your strike rate, and make sure your staking method isn't too aggressive; make sure it can safely withstand a longer than expected run of outs. Betting a percentage of the bank is what I recommend, re-calculating after each race (reduces exposure in run of outs, and makes the most of when the winners return).

Best of luck to you.
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