trialling a new selection method & have so far managed the following figures, & has been returning consistent results since dec 07 (even when ive bet on them...) -

total bets - 509
winners - 89
strike rate - 17.5%
average div - $10.56
max div - $37.80
min div - $1.40
pot - 84%
longest run of outs to date - 24

any comments or observations welcome

How did your selections fair betting for the place?

A couple of quick comments. I'd be a little concerned about the run of outs. Be honest with yourself and consider how long you would be prepared to continue to bet a selection method that had just produced 24 losers in a row. My point is, there's nothing saying your selection method won't have a run of 24 outs, followed by one average priced winner, follwed by another run of 24 outs. For confidence sake, you might find it worthwhile to sacrifice some profit, in return for a better strike rate, thus reducing the length of run of outs, and thereby increasing your confidence in continuing to back your selections while in the midst of a run of outs.

For instance, you mention that your max div was $37.80. That's great, and while I'm sure everyone loves to snag a longshot from time to time, my question would be if you ruled out any selection with a pre-post price of say $16 or higher, would it reduce your run of outs, and increase your overall strike rate? If so, then I feel that such a rule should be something to consider implementing, even if it results in a lower p.o.t.

Conversely, you might also consider ruling out any selections paying less than $3. Given that favourites only win 30% of the time, it seems unlikely your selections paying less than $3 would have contributed very much in terms of p.o.t.

I can't really offer much more advice without knowing more about your selection method. Just work on increasing your strike rate, and make sure your staking method isn't too aggressive; make sure it can safely withstand a longer than expected run of outs. Betting a percentage of the bank is what I recommend, re-calculating after each race (reduces exposure in run of outs, and makes the most of when the winners return).

Best of luck to you.

__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas

Hi Silver & Sands, thanks for the reply

the run of outs are a concern - 24 has happened twice, the average is around 6-7, but over the 10 months so far it has always rebounded quickly

re the longshots, had a closer look at sp strike rates & came up with the following (unitab prices) -

< $10sp - s/r 21%
$10.0 - $19.9 - s/r 14%
$20&> - s/r 13%

& the best profit range was the $20&> - 15 winners in this group - the poorest performing range was <$10, did surprise me when i saw that, but still showing a healthy pot.

i am betting 2% of bank non reducing & recalculating after every new high is reached, so far so good

just for a laugh i may start posting the selections, if the forum cant break it i may be on a winner...


oh & the place strike rate to date is 38% & very low pot, havent put much work into it as it has presented as a win only method from the start

Stugots

I had to look twice, I though I posted those stats.......!!

Those stats look incredibly similar to one that I have (and think I did post here at one point), albeit the period is over a number of years and not months like yours are:

Sel 495
Wins 98 SR 19.8%
Plc 198 SR 40.0%
WP 424 units 85% POT
PP 55 units 11% POT

This year stats:
Sel 36
Wins 5 SR 13.9%
Plc 12 SR 33.3%
WP 68 units 188% POT
PP 5 units 13% POT

I bet each way as I like the warm cuddle of a collect
Yes, it would of cost me on the win side, but it's the method that I'm most comfortable with.

Good Luck with it.....

__________________
Stix
.......Giddy Up..... !!

stix, ive got one of those 'twilight zone' feelings

but seriously, thanks for the post, i take it your method also snags its fair share of longer priced winners? & do you mind revealing your worst run of outs?

good to see a similar set of stats

Personally, I would be quite concerned about those 13% and 14% strike rates for those selections > $10. Even though those selections seem to be rewarding your method for now, you must admit that when considering their lower strike rate, they have the potential to make your method come undone in the long run.

If you really want to keep betting the longshots, why not remove those selections that are > $10 from this method and let them be a separate longshot method that uses a separate betting bank. You could use a staking plan of 2% per bet for the method with selections paying < $10, and maybe you could use a more conservative staking plan of 1% reducing for the longshot method.

Best of luck to you.

__________________
...time held me green and dying, though I sang in my chains like the sea. - Dylan Thomas

Here is my 2 cents worth ...

Anything less than a 25% strike rate is going to be hard to follow unless it is automated. If you get say 1 bet a day and have a run of 24 outs then that is almost a month without any winners. This is going to be hard for most people to follow.

The problem with low strike rate systems is that they go pear shaped very easily as you really need at least 2000+ selections to even consider them.

This is stuff I have found from personal experience. It doesn't mean your system will go the same way but just be wary of the potential for it.

Good Luck.

Long shot system need at least 500 units bank, betting 1% of the bank with something that has 2-5% strike rate is suicide. IMO

anything less and you'll crack when the run of outs excededs 98 which is quite possible with 2% strike rate ......

also be prepared for a world of pain, frustration, self questioning .

Also longshots arent worth it for place you'll look like you are doing better and then 2 wins later you'll be that far infront with the win that it will be painfull to watch.

Michal

i hear you Michal, however i wouldnt call this a longshot system, the winners odds to date are evenly spread between $1.5 & $35, the selection method is not influenced by price in any way

& by '2-5%', im assuming you mean '25%' not '2% to 5%'?

not sure what others think but if ones not betting the top 1-3 in the market each bet, then a win strike rate in the range of 15% to 20% is more than acceptable, thoughts?

I was refereing to Silver and sand's post regarding spliting your bets that is all.