Thread: pre post fav
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Old 27th August 2010, 01:43 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
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Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
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BRYZ55, your question is an interesting one as it hits upon something than punters dont realise even after many years of punting, and its this:

say you have a method that produces a S/R of 30% winners overall after filters or b4) it doesn't matter how you bet them say every other day, day to day week to week, odd races even races every 5th horse every 10th horse etc etc in the end you will still have a 30% S/R, the sequences would have changed good and bad but over many many bets your S/R is still 30%,
thats why progressive staking plans cannot possibly turn a loss into a profit in the long term.

Now you could alter your S/R by restricting PP price, eg. only bet $3.50 and less, sure the S/R will increase, but the divvies will be shorter so same thing (well not quite, as its been proven that the shorter the odds the less LOT slightly)

eg. say you only back PP favs that are quoted @ 1/1 or less at tote odds you will lose about 7-8% on T/O, with best tote etc that gets close to break even WITH NO FILTERS.

The only thing I would say try and keep a pattern, eg say you know you can bet Wed, Sat, Sun, well form your plan around that rather than jumping all over the place. Haphazard betting if you are a very lucky man could result in many jagged winners, but also many jagged losers if you see what I mean.
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