Thread: pre post fav
View Single Post
  #7  
Old 27th August 2010, 02:56 PM
partypooper partypooper is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: Western Australia
Posts: 2,435
Default

was that POT or LOT darky?

BRYZ55, I can see that you didn't grasp what I was saying, put it like this:

your staking example, yes in individual examples it might turn a loss into a profit BUT consider this: after many thousands of bets you would have had x thousand bets @ 1 unit, x number of bets @ 2 units, x number of bets @ 4 units, x number of bets @ 8,16 and 32 units.

now to clarify say the x number of bets @1unit had a S/R of whatever it is say 32% , like wise the x number of bets @ 2,4,8,16 and 32 units also had a S/R of 32%. i.e. it doesn't matter how much money you have on them the S/R remains @ 32% overall.

Another way to test if I am right (and I am) is to add up the total amount staked over say 200 sequences, divide this figure by the total no bets, to give you an average bet size.

Now calculate what would have happened if you just put that average bet size on ALL the selections:

PRESTO you will see that the S/R was 32% still and the POT or LOT is exactly the same.

Thats why they call me "Partypooper"

PS. There is one thing though that may have some merit, take the PP fav, (always using the same source, SMH, or whatever) now look at the IAS opening fav, and also the PP Fav Don scots market, first 5 races only bet only if all 3 agree.
Reply With Quote