Originally Posted by wesmip1

Seriously though, moeee do you try to target value or a high strike rate ?

If you rate a dog at 12% chance then that is $8.33 And you assume you standard deviation is around 10% then your odds are only good on this dog at 12%-10% = 2% = $50.

I am not sure how you are doing your pricing but I would hope you read the above and use it.