Originally Posted by TheSchmile

I've been using the same ratings for some years now and I find the key to profits is going in hard when your ratings don't agree with the general consensus.

An example yesterday of going against the crowd, was Cloudcraft at Cessnock. A last start 3 length winner in the same class, at the track and distance. It had a slight freshen-up but had barrier trialled nicely in preparation. Started at $10 and was a tasty overlay as it won comfortably after being top-rated.

You can also do well in races where your selection is 3rd-5th rated overall by a small margin and the horses above it are currently out of form or are not proven at the distance range. Often one or two horses in a race will be pushed and others will drift simply because they are not media darlings. Hype and human emotion still effects starting prices in my opinion.

Hope this helps, not trying to brag, simply wishing to push the fact that value is there if you start with quality ratings and apply to them basic punting principles, such as; track, distance, VALUE etc.

The Schmile