I don't use form in my ratings, they are based on speed and fitness and I only do them on metro meetings. Winners last week included Our Chateau $28, Red Geisha $18, Dr Nipandtuck $38 to name a few.

Too many people use form and I find more value looking outside this.


Good Morning Mattio,

Well done on your approach! How have you been going recently? Does it take long to do?

Cheers
Twodogs

Hi Twodogs,

I use a program to come up with the ratings which is the second version as the first version focused more on form and while it found plenty of winners I was losing due to poor value. The new version has been running about 3 weeks now, it takes me around 1/2 hour to do each meeting as I collaborate different information into a spreadsheet for analysis.

I normally only do them for Metro meetings but I had some time yesterday and did them for Wagga and Mildura and found 5 of 9 on top winners at Wagga including Red Zann at $39 as well as 2 on top at Mildura for around a 30% POT there.

I post the ratings free on my website, if you are interested email me at mat at sportofkings dot com dot au for the url.

Cheers,

Mat.

I have played around with ratings for the past 20 years, even used a version of Don Scott's when i first started i had to hand type everything in to my old IBM JX computer i used a version of his race class tables but cut it down, i had some big collects back then just about every day i could find a 20/1 winner.

I progressed to form and weight and stayed there even when some changed to pace i didn't change, i dropped the weight as the limit increased, over the past 12 months i find my ratings only work in higher grade races these days as i think you still need form to win those races.

On the Punters Show the other day Marc talked about fitness and distance change and it did make sense and got me thinking, also the other fact that horses often repeat performances year in year out if trained the same way i need to come up with a few other ideas.

Morning Shaun,

The problem is most form guides are providing the same old data that we are all used to and then lean on to find winners. I used the Wizard for many years as it did have some different data but all the same could not find a profitable angle as it was based on Don Scott weight ratings.

Cheers
Twodogs

I've been using the same ratings for some years now and I find the key to profits is going in hard when your ratings don't agree with the general consensus.

An example yesterday of going against the crowd, was Cloudcraft at Cessnock. A last start 3 length winner in the same class, at the track and distance. It had a slight freshen-up but had barrier trialled nicely in preparation. Started at $10 and was a tasty overlay as it won comfortably after being top-rated.

You can also do well in races where your selection is 3rd-5th rated overall by a small margin and the horses above it are currently out of form or are not proven at the distance range. Often one or two horses in a race will be pushed and others will drift simply because they are not media darlings. Hype and human emotion still effects starting prices in my opinion.

Hope this helps, not trying to brag, simply wishing to push the fact that value is there if you start with quality ratings and apply to them basic punting principles, such as; track, distance, VALUE etc.

The Schmile

Morning Mate,

What ratings do you use?

Don't mind you mentioning winners you have had as it does provide something to look at and dig a little. Must admit when you see horses winning with no form factors going for them you do wonder about using form ( dist ability etc ) as a filter.

Twodogs

Hi Shaun,

I was talking to Dallas yesterday and discussed that people need to look at doing something different from the norm to find value these days which is why their MYM works well. I agree with you to some extent regarding form in bigger races but you tend to find that the horses nearing or at peak fitness will be very competitive and often have good form as well.

I do find in my ratings that the top rated horses on the fitness and speed factors will often have good form ratings as well. 2 Saturdays ago with my current ratings backing the top 3 rated horses at level stakes saw a profit of over 60 units on the day on tote prices, I did a set of form ratings for the same day and they saw a 20 unit loss when backed in the same way.

Cheers,

Mat.

Would you guys using fitness please give some hint on how you assess it. Do you use number of starts from a spell for instance?

Yes any insight to some of these factors or maybe some reading on the subject would be good.

Hi gunny72 and shaun,
The way mine works is a combination of days since last start and runs from a spell which is then put into a formula that provides a rating. I really don't know what the actual formula is as I didn't create it but that is basically how it works.

I hope this helps.

Cheers,

Mat.

P.S. Sorry to all who got my ratings yesterday, it was quite an off day so hopefully we bounce back on Saturday. What I do find very useful is not necessarily the Overall Rating but the horses highlighted as Improvers, Peak Fitness, Speed etc. Most of the time the winner comes from these nominated horses so that piece of information may work well with some of your own form study.