6th July 2011, 08:54 AM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 2011
Posts: 268
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shaun
I have played around with ratings for the past 20 years, even used a version of Don Scott's when i first started i had to hand type everything in to my old IBM JX computer i used a version of his race class tables but cut it down, i had some big collects back then just about every day i could find a 20/1 winner.
I progressed to form and weight and stayed there even when some changed to pace i didn't change, i dropped the weight as the limit increased, over the past 12 months i find my ratings only work in higher grade races these days as i think you still need form to win those races.
On the Punters Show the other day Marc talked about fitness and distance change and it did make sense and got me thinking, also the other fact that horses often repeat performances year in year out if trained the same way i need to come up with a few other ideas.
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Hi Shaun,
I was talking to Dallas yesterday and discussed that people need to look at doing something different from the norm to find value these days which is why their MYM works well. I agree with you to some extent regarding form in bigger races but you tend to find that the horses nearing or at peak fitness will be very competitive and often have good form as well.
I do find in my ratings that the top rated horses on the fitness and speed factors will often have good form ratings as well. 2 Saturdays ago with my current ratings backing the top 3 rated horses at level stakes saw a profit of over 60 units on the day on tote prices, I did a set of form ratings for the same day and they saw a 20 unit loss when backed in the same way.
Cheers,
Mat.
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