This is copy and paste from a few months back

HOW I FORM A MARKET

For the example , I have chosen Race 8 at Shepparton tonight.

What I do is download each runners race history and place it in my Excel Spreadsheet.
I only go back 24 months.This I have found is usually more than sufficient.
I only use the latest 18 starts if the animal has more than that in the previous 2 years.
What I use to compare each runner against the others is their race times.
Of course the problem is the various tracks and distances that exist.
So there needs to be a common datum that links all the tracks and distances.
Track Records is good.
Or perhaps an average of the 3 fastest times? - or 5?

So i subtract what time the animal ran from the standard for that course and distance
I do this for the 18 starts , and then averagethem.
Do this for all 8 runners and you now have a starting rating.
It will be grossly innacurate , but is more accurate than a dartboard.

Once I have a rating for each dog , I place the rating into a Formula which translates the ratings into a Market

So my Raw Market for Race 8 is this.

1 MISTER MOOMS $23.4
2 VUVUZELA $7.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $21.3
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $21.7
5 TIME MATTERS $19.1
6 HIAVACKOVA $5.6
7 BEST PERFUME $2.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $33.4

The first problem that needs to be overcome is that ALL 18 lines are included in the average.
I have no idea how to mechanically get rid of unsuitable lines , so I must go through each animal and get rid of , or modify lines that are biasing the rating incorrectly

For example Mister Mooms is clearly racing better now , so I eliminate a couple earlier poor performances

Also the suitability of the Box draw needs to be allowed for.
Poor Box draw means an animal wont be able to repeat a good performance.
Good Box draw means can eliminate some poor performances which drag an animals average rating down.
Mister MOOMS is extremely well drawn so I eliminate many more poor lines.

After doing all that , I now end up with this much more accurate Market

1 MISTER MOOMS $3.3 - before $23
2 VUVUZELA $12.2 - before $7.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $18.9 - before $21
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $49.0 - before $27
5 TIME MATTERS $32.0 - before $19
6 HIAVACKOVA $6.8 - before $5.6
7 BEST PERFUME $2.9 - before $2.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $55.8 - before $33

The obvious major change is the Odds of the Red Runner.

Next I look at the stats in The Watchdog.
It gives me an idea as to whether it loves a box or a track and how cionsistent an animal is.
I also look at The watchdog Market to see if I am way out.
I also look at the Computer ratings to see any ovious errors there.

And my Final Market becomes this

1 MISTER MOOMS $3.5
2 VUVUZELA $9.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $16.8
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $51.9
5 TIME MATTERS $33.9
6 HIAVACKOVA $7.2
7 BEST PERFUME $3.1
8 VALLETTA FLAME $30.4

or in Market Order

7 BEST PERFUME $3.1
1 MISTER MOOMS $3.5
6 HIAVACKOVA $7.2
2 VUVUZELA $9.3
3 DIEGO SIYAN $16
8 VALLETTA FLAME $30
5 TIME MATTERS $33
4 LUCKY I'M FAST $50

So going by The Watchdog market , there isn't a lot of Value here.
But to force the wager , I would suggest backing 6 HIAVACKOVA for the place.
Its Odds of Placing are $2.05