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![]() If its about finding Overlays , where would you look?
Could it be the Favourite? The Favourite , the animal that everyone wants to back. The animal that most likely has all the available data pointing to it winning. Could it be the Favourite? I think not. In fact , if you were looking to LAY an animal , then amongst the Favourites would the most likely contenders be found. The more data available about an animal , then the more likely that that animal is either at the correct Odds , or has been overbet. How about this. If given 100 Even money Favourites , is it an easy task to eliminate 50 of these Favourites without throwing away more than 25 Winners? I reckon I could do it , but I don't know if I could well enough to make a Profit. Then there is the other choice of say $5 shots. If we had 100 of these runners , could we do as well or better than with the Even Money Group? To do as well , means we need to be able to eliminate 50 runners without eliminating more than 10 Winners. Again , I reckon I could do it , but still not well enough to make a Profit. But that is if the $5 shots were all in different Races. BUT HERE'S THE THING. With the Even Money Chances , these are more than likely in different Races. And each of them will be at Even Money , because a lot better judges than I have made them so. BUT , with the $5 shots , there is often 2 or even 3 animals , and not unusual to find 4 in the same race. So what is happening here , is that those a lot better judges than me are having doubts. And when there is doubt , there is the potential to get it wrong. I'm gonna have a play in this thread making suggestions as to where the Overlay might be found. |
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