9th April 2012, 12:37 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 225
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by moeee
That you have access to this sort of information is the reason why you are successful.
I don't do this.
I know should and have everything to gain by doing so and zero to lose , except perhaps some time.
Could you tell me something about 2 scenarios that could occur in these 87 Wagers?
Supposing you had a horse rated at $50 and the man wanted $10
I figure from what you write , that you would let him have $20 on it at $10 and that would be that for that Race.
And supposing in another Race where you had something Rated at $14 and the man wanted $10 , then again, you would let him have $20 on it at $10 and that would be that for the race.
Is that so?
Tell me if not.
If it is , can you see that the animal that you have given almost no chance , is being treated exactly the same as the animal that you give some sort of chance?
I have a Formula here that AngryPixie helped me with that will help you take advantage of the discrepancy between your rated Price and the other Player.
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Mo,
I do not lay EVERY underlay. I'm not that good. I pick out between 3 and 12 horses to lay on a Sat. I get a gut feel for a horse mostly. If I'm confident my asessment is rock solid, I need big value to get involved. That's with the roughies anyway. So no, I doubt I would lay a horse at $10 If i rated it at $14, unless I had a gut feel. Did it run well off a VVF pace last start? Was it pace advantaged, etc? I do that ********.
For example on Sat, I layed Ofcourseican at $17. Now she would have rated OK as she did rate 103 last start and More Joyous only rated 100. BUT, she was advantaged by a massive outside bias & pace advantaged by a VVF pace, and suited at handicap conditions in producing this rating. $34 was probably a fair assessment there
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