After a bit of cogitating we come up with Plan B (all the other plans were lowercase and thrown out)
Each race has different dynamics. However each factor has only marginal variance to the favorites winning strike rate. Except odds and field size and as Chrome Prince also brought to light – firming horses. Class, track , distance and weather only vary by one percent. Over the various prices for the favorite the strike rate goes from >80% at $1.20 to <20% at over $5. From 5 runners up to 24 runners the strike goes from 86% down to 11.8% over all the price ranges.
Our plan is to automate this. To do this I must either attach the betting bot to a data base or I produce a chart which gives us the historical averages of each ranked horse in each field size in each price range. School is still out whether we only do from $2 and 8+ runners or do every race.
Example field of 8 in the >$2.00 to =$2.50 range.
1st rank..38.31%..$2.61..lay $161 for $100+ win This will always be unders.
2nd rank..24.44%..$4.09.. lay $309
3rd rank..13.80%..$7.24..lay $624
4th rank..9.40%..$10.64..lay $964
5th rank..5.72%..$17.48..lay $1648
6th rank..$19.46..$19.46..lay $1846
7th rank..1.94%..$51.60..lay $5160
8th rank..1.16%..$86.21.. lay $8621
This range may have to be split up as the fav has a 6% range over this 50 cent range. The maximum rate is 0.5% and $200 (lay $20000). Because results show that even rank outsiders have at least a 1 in 200 chance.
The percentage figure is the average strike rate for the range, the monetary figure is $100 divided by the SR or the breakeven point without commission. The SR figures are from tote. Plan 1 is to lay the horses at these ratios when it is a 8 horse race and it looks like the SP of the fav is between $2 and $2.50. If it is a 12 horse race or in a different price range then a different chart is used. Plan 2 loads the first rank by 20%, second rank by 15% 3rd rank by 10% and fourth rank by 5%. Plan 3 is a bit more complicated and requires checking for firmers which requires three different charts depending whether the fav is steady firming or drifting. To start Plan 2 may be the go.
The thinking of this instead of laying all for $100 is as follows.
These are the statistical averages. They have the weight of numbers with the selections by the masses. The adage is bet overs and lay unders. By betting to these rates if the price you get is less then you bolster the unders. If the price you get is higher then you limit your overs.
The chart can be in excel. No problem there I have the data extracted already. The bot will have to tell the number of runners and ascertain the potential SP and tell the excel program. The excel program will give the various amounts to the bot to lay. In the future it may be prudent to extract the data from a database.
Devil advocates please take a number and line up. I am a big boy and will take the flak
Beton