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Old 24th May 2012, 01:09 PM
beton beton is offline
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Join Date: Jan 1970
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chrome Prince
Actually after reading your last post, I like it.
I think it has legs, but maybe we or you need to concentrate on the price of the third favourite.
i.e. if the favourite is between $2.00 and $2.50 and the third favourite has x% strike rate in these circumstances, what is the maximum price we are able to lay that third favourite at?

I would look at price first and liability second, but I could be wrong.


Chrome Prince I am trying to understand what you are saying here. The third fav without having done the charts seems to be quite stable. It has an overall average of about 14%. Below $2 it dips below 10% and it goes out to 16+% as the fav gets real long. Where the bulk of the races are $2-$4 Fav it only ranges 3-4%. What I am trying to do is set the price of the field to their average SR. This is their breakeven point before commissions. The maximum we can lay it at is what the market will allow us to. If the maximum price we can get on the third fav is only $5, then this is the price. (we are actually trying to get the lowest price) By setting our liability to the SR we may have the payout at $120 instead of just $100 but we are loading up on unders. in the rare occassions that the price is above the SR then we have limited our exposure. I think that the third is overbet by people looking for value. You need $6+ most of the time and below odds on you need near $10. (I toyed with the idea of just laying unders and dismissed it as too hard and maybe unwarranted) We may have to set the amounts to breakeven after commissions to make it work profitably, or even to breakeven after both commissions and profits.

What we are searching for is that it is not a dead duck in the water. That it can be done and how it can be done and who can help how they can help and will they help. Hopefully to each persons benefit. If you are drilling for water, nobody can get a drink until you bring the water to the surface.
Beton
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