That shape of the race stuff makes great reading. Tell me, how often does your pre-race analysis reflect what actually happens when the horses leave the gate? Half the time, most of the time, sometimes?
The most important part of my pre race analysis is rating the strength of the previous races each horse has been running in. I use a system a bit reminiscent of Don Scott's ratings but I don't rate a race blindly according to the class or whatever - I rate it according to the previous performances of all the horses that are in it.