What’s the most important factor when it comes to analysing a race?

I personally think that the race shape is, because you can figure out where ‘your’ horse will take up the running, i.e. handy or mid field. You can tell what the early and late pace is likely to be and where it will come from. (Will there be a speed duel and if so, how will it affect the outcome? Can those horses gap the field and sneak away?). You can spot potential ‘spoilers’, i.e. horses that may cause interference to your selection. You can identify which horses can run the ‘real time’ of the race based on historical data. If the race average, for the track, distance, ‘class’ and track conditions (good, dead, etc) is 69.05s, what’s the point in backing a horse that has only run 70.63s under the same ‘conditions’?

Obviously there are many other factors to take into consideration, but I think the (potential) speed of the race is most important.

Has anyone else got an opinion? What do you think is the most important factor and why?

Look forward to your comments