4th September 2004, 05:36 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 82
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Quote:
On 2004-09-03 20:05, KennyVictor wrote:
That shape of the race stuff makes great reading. Tell me, how often does your pre-race analysis reflect what actually happens when the horses leave the gate? Half the time, most of the time, sometimes?
The most important part of my pre race analysis is rating the strength of the previous races each horse has been running in. I use a system a bit reminiscent of Don Scott's ratings but I don't rate a race blindly according to the class or whatever - I rate it according to the previous performances of all the horses that are in it.
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Kenny, good points there.
So far it’s 67% accuracy and this is due to a reasonably predicable style of racing here in Gods Zone (otherwise known as New Zealand). Today I rated 5 races and 4 of those had the pattern I predicted. The anomaly was Doc Holiday; normally a handy runner he inexplicably got back and couldn’t make up much ground in heavy going. Still 3 winners: $4.95, $5.45 and $5.65. It’s not infallible but I work on the basis that the selection should be either a front-runner or is always handy before I add any further criteria. My times (and sectionals) are all class (field strength, distance) and track based, and throw in track condition into the mix. Note I have to do my own sectionals off the video because sectionals aren’t recorded here. I have other criteria or filters i.e. weight, jockey, fitness, etc that each selection needs to pass before I get to putting on ‘price’ on it.
If you’ve got any more questions, I’ll do my best to answer them.
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