16th February 2005, 03:02 PM
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Member
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Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 578
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Shaun
This is the reason the Kelly's is not the best form of staking....mathamaticly yes it may be but emotionally it is not.....90% of punters could not handle what Kelly betting offers when it cals for a bet of 20% of your bank on one selection and it losses then you can be sure that will have an affect on the emotional state of the punter....also to work the system correctly you need to be able to assess a horses true price....some thing that also 90% could not do......IMO the best form of staking is a bank percentage bet of between 2% & 5% of your bank depending on your SR and a recalculation of the betting amount at a predetermined level....this level can be anything from every 10 bets to say once a month....i would not suggest a recalculation every bet.
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I actually agree with a lot what you've stated Shaun. But the Kelly Criterion is not the invention of either William T. Ziemba & Donald B. Hausch, being the creation of a John Kelly who was working on a totally different product which had nothing to do with gambling.
He was working for AT&T's Bell Labs in 1956. His original formulas dealt with long-distance telephone transmission signal noise. But the gambling community (think it was Edward Thorp who was the first to write about it in a gambling sense) quickly understood that the same approach may help them to calculate the optimal amount to bet on a horseracing and other gambling options and the best way to take advantage of overlays and underlays, maximizing the growth of your bankroll over the long term.
The Kelly Criterion is a recognized by many to be the best money management system and is often referred to when the question of optimal betting size is being discussed and is mentioned in many non-gambling books on money management such as stock exchange investments.
The question of the emotion that would be required in operating the Kelly is of a major consideration, and is why many use less aggressive alternatives based on the Kelly principles, but that particular aspect is NOT what this topic is about, more that it is MATHEMATICALLY possible to enhance level stake profit through the use of a staking plan such as the Kelly.
More on Edward Thorp and the Kelly Criterion can be found at:
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/thorp/paper.htm
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