I have been hearing about progressions for years, perhaps this link might finally put the progression to bed.


http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/progress/unfair.htm

Crash,

After having a quick look at that jumble of letters and numbers and whatever, I've decided that I'll just have to take your word for it.

I reckon Crash should explain what it means in simple terms so we can all understand it. :-)

Good one La Mer !!!

OK, a simple request.

PROGRESSIONS DON'T WORK 8-)

....because there is always a 'negative expectation' [even if your very positive about your chances] at work in horse racing. Meaning your odds are never fixed at better than 49%. This doesn't mean you can't win at the game, it just means that flat stakes % of bank betting is better than progression betting.

To expand on progressions a bit further, it might be worth thinking about the punter who is exploring the use of, or is trying a progression for the first time. Mostly it is those who are loosing punters, as a winning punter netting profit flat stakes win/place or whatever, is as happy as a pig in mud with what they are already doing.

The loosing punter exploring progressions is searching for a way to turn loss into profit, which is a bit like trying to spend more than you earn without getting into debt [how our society and it's economy works]. In other words the punter interested in progressions is mostly chasing losses though they will rarely admit it [even to themselves].

The only progression that will never get you into trouble is the winning progression. Increasing the bet amount by a progression line after a win and not a loss. Long term of course you will be no better off than sticking to flat stakes betting, but it will give you the 'impression' of being better off. That might be worth something.

Thanks for that link Crash, there's nothing better than to see some buggar use a pageful of numbers and letters (dissapointed with the lack of greek letters) to prove what you felt was the case all along (even if one's comprehension pulls up short after the introductory paragraph).

If you are winning on level stakes though there must be something to be said for increasing your bets (safely) as your bank gets bigger. Obviously your percentage return won't improve but your bottom line must.

KV

This is a bit of a smoke and mirrors trick you're playing Crash. It is already proven mathematically that the Kelly Criterion will in fact improve on level stake where a level stake profit exists. There are countless references to this in various books and on the net.

Progressive level stakes will also enhance level stakes profit, which I think you are alluding to, but to state the "it will give you the 'impression' of being better off" is to not true and if you think not, then simply provide the proof to the contrary. :-)

sounds to me like another maths boffin did his ******** using the martingale and thought he would try to find out why. wheather he has or not who knows?

Not sure which 'maths boffin' you are referring to davez, but the following is an extract from Dr. Z’s Beat the Racetrack By William T. Ziemba & Donald B. Hausch, both highly qualified mathematicians among other qualifications that these two men have and neither is a gambler as such.

"The absolute best money management system is the Kelly criterion. It has quite a few properties that the authors favor. It determines bet size solely on the basis of the goodness of each bet. It tells you to bet more when you are winning because your betting wealth is higher. Finally, it practically protects you from going broke since you wager an amount proportional to you betting wealth. One of the major assumptions underlying the Dr. Z system is that you bet according to the Kelly criterion."

This is the reason the kelly's is not the best form of staking....mathamaticly yes it may be but emotionally it is not.....90% of punters could not handle what kelly betting offers when it cals for a bet of 20% of your bank on one selection and it losses then you can be sure that will have an affect on the emotional state of the punter....also to work the system correctly you need to be able to assess a horses true price....some thing that also 90% could not do......IMO the best form of staking is a bank percentage bet of between 2% & 5% of your bank depending on your SR and a recalculation of the betting amount at a predetermind level....this level can be anything from every 10 bets to say once a month....i would not suggest a recalculation every bet.