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Old 6th March 2005, 06:48 AM
bazzatoo bazzatoo is offline
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 5
Question Backing 2nd to 4th favourites

A PubTAB acquaintance mentioned an interesting betting approach, a week or so back. I don't even know if he uses the system himself.

Apparently, the idea is to back the 2nd to 4th favourites to win $5 per race. Lose, and you chase the lost outlay, plus win $5 on the following race.
Next race came on screen, he left it at that????

Intrigued, last Monday I started to keep records, of wins by the 2nd to 4th favourites, using the prepost market order (lowest saddlecloth no. if equal). Heaps of winners from the 2nd to 4th favourites, but I could see huge problems (and big losses) if a run of outs hit. Even 4 or 5 non winners in a row, would be devastating.

One aspect that did strike me, was the need to switch between meetings throughout the afternoon (back and forward in race time order). Some prepost markets appear more accurate than others.

By the end of the week, the need for filters was obvious. Big fields were producing the majority of loss situations (the other was the prepost favourite winning the race).
To improve results, but mainly to reduce the risk of runs of outs,
fields of 6-10 only, no 2yo or jumps races, seem to be the go.
To forget about races of less than 1400m, may be a positive. Also, perhaps only begin to bet when you are able to switch to and fro, between a minimum of 3 meetings (such as on Friday, with the staggered starting times).

I dropped out on Saturday, after Werribee was rained out, leaving only Newcastle and the Gold Coast. Actually, there were good results at Newcastle. I steer clear of Saturday metro meetings, always; yet 23 of the 33 races were won by the first four in the prepost.

Some states may prove to be better betting propositions than others, some days better than others.

For the 5 days I have examined, I am positive that one could have won every day, chasing the $5 (or whatever) per race, betting on every race. However, on a couple of occasions, it may have taken some nerve to hang in there. Hence trying to work out filters.

Does anyone have any comment on the feasibility of this idea, please? Or can provide results from past weeks.
I intend to compile another fortnight of results at least, before even thinking about having a bet. I am not in a financial position, that I can afford to bet in hope. Too often when the money goes on, the winners immediately dry up....as we are all well aware.....Murphy's Law of Punting.

Firstly, I need to prove that there is minimum risk involved. One major bomb out in coming days, could easily be enough to deter me. We'll see.

On the surface, after only 5 days, looking reasonable.
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