Dusty, why would you treat him as a scratching? That means you are implying he has 0% chance of winning the race! Clearly he has a much greater chance than 0%, exactly what chance is in the eyes of the individual assessor.

Grandera is a long way superior to Silvano who ran a pretty good race last year.His profile suggests he needs 2000m, firm ground and a fast pace. Although the strathyr surface means that MV never gets as firm as the other tracks, you would have to think that on the weekend he will be reasonably well suited.

He is known however to be a loose cannon and if anything could stir him up it will be the noise and atmosphere as they parade prior to the race.

I for one will be very inerested to see how he behaves prior to the race, that will tell me alot about his chances.

Given the general risk overseas pose as betting propositions, the risk of how he behaves pre race and the fact that he is meeting the best Cox Plate field of modern times, I would personally only look to support him at about $7-8. I know I won't get that, but thats the early assessment I make on his chances.





[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2002-10-25 16:22 ]