I am very tempted to treat Grandera as a scratching. The overseas horses have shocking records here.

I don't know dusty dude, might be a little harsh to treat as a scratching. Goldophin has had a little experience in our part of the world now, and are quite serious this year. Their steeds are not second raters, as they have been in the past, and their second raters nearly stole our Melbourne Cup twice! This years field is crack, so you are probably right. But it seems the the Americans wanted Grandera, but couldn't get him. We are now seriously on the world map, and how good is that!!! Still like Lonhro from Sunline, and Northerly, but have a read below before you throw out of your multiples...

Compliments of AAP...

Monday, 21 October 2002:


The all-conquering Godolphin stable admitted it had obtained a new perspective on the chances of Cox Plate runner Grandera following Saturday's Caulfield Cup.

But it was the reaction of local bookmakers to the win of Northerly that has caused more concern than what happened on the racetrack.

"It adds to our anxiety that even after a performance like that, Northerly isn't even the favourite for the Cox Plate," Godolphin spokesman Alan Byrne said today.

Northerly turned in one of the best Caulfield Cup efforts in the past 20 years to carry 58kg to victory over Fields Of Omagh.

Already the winner of one Cox Plate, he is a 3-1 chance to make it a double with Lonhro still holding down favouritism at 5-2.

Most bookmakers are keeping Grandera safe at around 9-2, despite a record that suggests he is the classiest international raider to come to Melbourne in the 10 years since the practice was established.

A winner of Group One races in three countries, Grandera arrived here with a Timeform rating of 127, higher than any horse to have raced in Australia.

Confirmation of his status was provided by Byrne who today declared Grandera the best horse in the world's biggest racing stable - and one which only a fortnight ago won the best race in the world, the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe with Marienbard.

"He's been the star of the year for Godolphin," Byrne said.

The recent retirement of other Godolphin leading lights, such as Sakhee, has left Grandera at the top of the stable's very tall ladder.

Another measure of his status is the attitude of the organisers of the Breeders' Cup meeting to be run in North America at the weekend.

Recognised as the richest race meeting in the world, the Breeders' Cup had been hoping to entice Grandera.

But the horse will be battling it out at Moonee Valley in one of the hottest fields ever brought together for a Cox Plate.

"The Breeders' Cup people are extremely upset that we have Grandera and they don't," said Racing Victoria general manager Mark Player.

The horse's appearance at the Valley is evidence of Godolphin's recognition of Australian racing and of its regard for the Cox Plate.

"It's well known that Godolphin has wanted desperately to win the Melbourne Cup for some time now," Byrne said.

"But they've also wanted to find the right horse to run in the Cox Plate.

"Grandera was set for this race months ago."

Byrne said Grandera also emphasised the Godolphin philosophy to run their horses in the world's best races.

"If there is a horse that exemplifies Godolphin it is this horse because he has raced in top races all over the world," he said.

Godolphin bought Grandera a year ago specifically to run in races in Singapore and Hong Kong.

But when he was so impressive in winning the International Cup in Singapore in May this year he was set for the Prince of Wales Stakes (2000m) at the Royal meeting at Ascot in June.

He won that race by five lengths then started favourite in England's best open-age race, The King George and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot in July where he finished a disappointing fifth, failing to run out the 2400m.

He then bounced back to form in the Group One Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown last month, beating the Epsom Derby runner-up Hawk Wing.

More significant, perhaps, than Grandera missing the Breeders' Cup meeting is the fact that his jockey Frankie Dettori will also favour Moonee Valley over the US.

Dettori would have had a big book of rides at the meeting, but will partner Grandera in the Cox Plate. He will also ride at Thursday night's Moonee Valley meeting.

Yes ominous indeed. Bear a thought that had you put in the overseas raiders in a quinella with the field - you would have been well ahead.

And this is their creme de la creme!

Dusty, why would you treat him as a scratching? That means you are implying he has 0% chance of winning the race! Clearly he has a much greater chance than 0%, exactly what chance is in the eyes of the individual assessor.

Grandera is a long way superior to Silvano who ran a pretty good race last year.His profile suggests he needs 2000m, firm ground and a fast pace. Although the strathyr surface means that MV never gets as firm as the other tracks, you would have to think that on the weekend he will be reasonably well suited.

He is known however to be a loose cannon and if anything could stir him up it will be the noise and atmosphere as they parade prior to the race.

I for one will be very inerested to see how he behaves prior to the race, that will tell me alot about his chances.

Given the general risk overseas pose as betting propositions, the risk of how he behaves pre race and the fact that he is meeting the best Cox Plate field of modern times, I would personally only look to support him at about $7-8. I know I won't get that, but thats the early assessment I make on his chances.





[ This Message was edited by: osulldj on 2002-10-25 16:22 ]

I can't see a overseas raider winning the Cox Plate mainly because of the Moonee Valley track , first of all they have to handle the Strathayr then they have to handle the tight track resulting in tight close racing which they would not be that experienced with.

I agree Grandera has a chance , every horse does but up against superstars on a track that will probably disadvantage him he really will have to be something special.

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