Once you have sufficent data, reprocess each dog's data take particular note of the correlation in the moving avg of each dogs stdev and the number of starts. This variation will give you an idea as to how dogs progress thru their racing career the same applies to horses.

After making the track adjustments to the data the LTD Stdev will become tighter or smaller.

Then your next step is to breakdown each dogs data by track, distance, Box etc and make slight adjustments to the LTD Mean an LTD Stdev based on sufficent data for each dog or by General analysis of the data.
Then run your MCsims once again, your next goal is to rank the dogs and make sure the MCsim probabilities Vs Actual stats are smooth, you don't need them to match the actuals just to have the same variations thru the probability bins

Once you have acheived the smallest variation possible your finished with doing anymore Handicapping...