I know we have been over this 101 times but i am just after some feedback on what your thoughts are on this situation.

I ran a weeks back testing on my top selection and i got these results.

S/R 20.83%
A/Price $5.15
P.O.T 7.34%

Now backing the runners to my prices i was able to increase the P.O.T to 17.51%

Now if i was betting to my prices for example i priced the runner at $3.00 and it was paying $5.00 and i wanted to win $100 i would back it for $50 giving me an actual profit of $200, now just say the runners price was $2.80 should i still back to my prices and accept a less return and just consider the runner is an underlay there for i am putting less money on it or should i back it to the actual price.

Now i know the argument about not backing underlays but i will get in to that one later.


P.S i ran a test to exclude underlays and increased the P.O.T to 25.15% so i am not sure my question is valid any more.

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Hi Shaun, You are talking about the top selection from your spreadsheet with basically no filters at all?

I run a test on your spreadsheet and used the filters of:
Min Class 80
Min starts 5
Distance from 1000 to 1600
Price of top selection $3.20 or less.

Everything must turn green. (cept the price of course which you look at)

For the last 5 Saturdays (as far as your results went back), and just on the 5 main states, Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.

The results were very good.

Strike Rate 32.5%
(40 bets, 13 wins)
Av Div $4.81
POT 56.4%

However I must say these stats were propped up by two very well paying winners. $11 and $13.
Take those two out and not quite break even,

Paul

Shaun, i'll send you an email about a staking idea that may work for you.

today Saturday, just 3 selections (and I was out all day).

1 winner paid $5.50 (1 2nd and 1 3rd)

Paul