Can anyone help me with the success rate for "longshot" ie. $3.70> favourites.
I'm pretty sure it's in the archives but I cant find it.

Syllabus23,

Greater than $3.70 and favourite...

19.75% win strike rate
15.15% Loss on turnover at TAB prices.

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Thanks Chrome,,,appreciate that.

Syllabus, Chrome,

My figures are :

20.50% strike rate
15.6% loss of turnover

Very similar figures ... The exact figure will alter slightly depending on the data you have to use.

Good Luck.

Amazing that the LOT is almost exactly the TAB take out, which means in essence that it should break even, so; as a starting point (looking for prices) it probably has something.

Chrome/ Wes, as a matter of interest how do those stats stack up against Favs in general, it would be pretty close isn't it?

Hmmm Chrome,Wesmip,,,can you make a case for betting longshot favourites each way,when the place dividend is $1-50> ????

What I'm asking is, does the loss minimising bet when the favourite runs 2nd or 3rd significantly improve the result of overall longshot winners ????

I'm not sure if your data bases extend this far.

I make some decent pocketmoney from betting longshot favourites each way,but I try to be selective.Stay away from tight markets,avoid races with a few first time starters,all the usual stuff......

But I have wondered what the overall result looks like.

Cheers,,, Bill.

Syllabus,

using unitab figures
Place >= $1.50
WinPirce >=$3.70

Selections :5592
Win $ = Loss of 16%
Place $ = Loss of 12%

All Favs where place has >= $1.50

Selections :15663
Win $ = Loss of 16%
Place $ = Loss of 6%

Favs where place has >= $1.50 and Win <= $3.50

Selections :8521
Win $ = Loss of 16%
Place $ = Loss of 2%

Hope that helps... I have posted on this before ... Look for place at least 60% of Win price and you should come out in front.

Thanks Wes,,,