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#1
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Betting by Averages
This is a system I have used for many years, I rarely have a losing weekend and my system can pick out some pretty good roughies.I use Best Bets to work this out with.
My system comes in 2 parts, Part 1. I give every type of race a rating RACE RATINGS G1 1 G2 2 G3 3 WFA 4 HCP 5 LR 6 C6 7 C5 8 C4 9 C3 10 C2 11 C1 12 MDN 13 Any race not included comes under handicap I then add up the last 3 finishing positions for each horse in the race and this gives me the favourite for the race. Example; Horse 1 4th in mdn,2nd in mdn,1st in mdn gives a score of 43 Horse 2 1st in G1,1st in G1,1st in G1 gives a score of 6 Part 2 From part 1 I then use this system to sort my best picks for the day G: SELECTED HORSES THAT HAVE HAD ATLEAST 1 GROUP RACE IN ITS LAST 3 STARTS W: SELECTED HORSES WHO WON ITS LAST START T: FINISHED TOP 3 IN ATLEAST 1 OF LAST 3 STARTS D: RACED AT THIS DISTANCE IN ATLEAST 1 OF LAST 3 STARTS(50m either side) J: FINISHED TOP 3 WITH THIS JOCKEY IN ATLEAST 1 OF 3 STARTS I get these choices based on averages, horses who ran the distance win 52% of the time, with the jockey 35% of the time etc. G 14.70 W 29.41 T 23.52 D 52.94 J 35.29 1st up and horses with less than 3 starts are excluded. So my top picks come from this system in this order DJWTG work down from there. I get an average place rate of 72% I think I have explained this adequately, any questions. Last edited by scott50 : 2nd June 2005 at 07:50 PM. |
#2
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Sounds reasonable. Seems like a fair bit of work though. Does it take long working them out?
How about you post a few selections for Saturday's races and we'll see how they go? Or perhaps post some recent results? |
#3
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Handicap better than a black type, i.e. listed?
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#4
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It doesn't take to long, a couple of hours on a Saturday morning.
I don't usually keep betting records on the computer, so I threw this together out of an old Best Bets. I will post my selections for this Saturday. April 16 Top 10 picks P1 P2 SCORE RATING M1 ASTRODAME 15 4TH GTJ M7 SONGS OF VIENNA 19 1ST $27.60 $6.60 GTDJ M4 RUN AND JUMP 21 6TH WDJ S4 STEFLARA 23 2ND $1.50 GTD A7 PRIOR KNIGHT 24 1ST $2.90 $1.50 WTDJ B3 SO EQUAL 24 2ND $3.70 WD M6 OUR SMOKING JOE 25 2ND $1.60 GD A4 GRACE AND POWER 26 WTD B9 DIAGON DUCHESS 29 2ND $2.50 WTD S3 CAPTAIN BAX 33 1ST $8.00 $2.70 WDJ |
#5
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I like it Scott50 but think I'll go with Chuck and move LR up to 4th spot. However, I'm hoping to see your selections for tomorrow, shortly. It's all a bit arbitrary in many ways but you can't scorn a $27.60 winner completely, either!!! Good luck and I'm awaiting your picks Scotty.
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#6
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Here are my top 10 selections for June 4 using my system.
B6 IRISH DARLING 13 DWG B7 BEAUTIFUL GEM 20 DJTW M6 DISMISSAL 21 DTW B3 PENTELIKON 22 DG A7 BIDDYUP 24 DT M7 UNIVERSAL HEIGHTS 25 DJTW S5 CLEWS PLACE 26 DT S8 LENO 26 DT A3 GRACE AND POWER 27 DG A5 NIKALAPKO 27 DT |
#7
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I should really have expected this outcome 1 win, 2 2nds, 1 3rd. All favourites too. But to help me out today I backed Natural Blitz, nothing to do with my system he just owed me some money and I always back him.
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#8
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Lin
Hi, Scott
Please bear with me here. I'm a bit new at this. Could you please explain what the letters in your race ratings mean, ie, what do you mean by: G1, G2, G3,LR,C6,C5,C4,C3,C2,C1. Also, in your example, how did you arrive at a score of 43 for horse 1? Thanks for your patience Lin |
#9
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Quote:
The first 3 are Group races.1,2 and 3 Listed Race. Class races 1 to 6. You may need to do a bit of study in race classification. Looked like the tally for number 1 came up at 3x13=39 plus 7 equals 46. |
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